AMERICA'S LONGEST WAR Two Decades in Afghanistan FOREIGN ANTHOLOGY

作者/Author(s): Hanna Notte 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: October 6, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Sanctions, Diplomacy 

摘要：

 

西方對俄羅斯的制裁削弱了俄方的作戰能力和武器銷售。然而，俄羅斯仍有購買傳統武器的管道，而且其在中東和非洲仍極具影響力，特別是針對那些同樣仇視美歐的國家。如果這些國家聯合起來，它們可以幫助俄羅斯維持其在烏克蘭的戰爭，擴大區域盟友的區域野心，甚至增加全球軍事衝突的可能性。因此，美國不應忽視這些可能作為次要對手的國家，也不該過度仰賴制裁來遏制它們的影響力。美國應重新調整其夥伴關係和聯盟，來平衡俄羅斯的勢力。 

結為聯盟的意願 
  • 雖然西方制裁嚴重破壞了俄羅斯的經濟，但並未完全實現停止俄羅斯侵略的預期目標。 
  • 制裁限制了俄羅斯的武器技術，但並沒有使其退出與流氓國家的低端武器貿易，莫斯科反倒成為流氓國家的寶貴合作夥伴。 
  • 此外，莫斯科還與伊朗、朝鮮以及被美國制裁的國家進行武器、材料或技術交流，以維持其在烏克蘭的行動。
武裝力量與危險 
  • 俄羅斯的新軸心團結了對美國敵對的弱國。 
  • 雖然西方不斷向烏克蘭提供武器，但俄羅斯新軸心也讓莫斯科得以繼續其在烏克蘭的消耗戰。
  • 透過武器和技術交流，莫斯科可以增強弱國的實力，並可能推動其他流氓國家之間的核擴散。 
  • 儘管北京不是俄羅斯軸心國的正式成員，但它可以支持這些無賴國家。 
  • 俄羅斯軸心國還可以加強成員國之間的合作。 
向前推進 
  • 美國可能需要應對不同戰線的地緣政治威寫，因而很難應對俄羅斯的軸心聯盟。 
  • 西方必須從全面的角度來考慮這一軸心，而不是將其視為一系列互不關聯的伙伴關係。西方決策者必須明白，制裁不可能阻止俄羅斯與其他無賴國家的合作，他們可能會適應新的懲罰措施並加以變通。 
  • 美國應加強其印太和中東夥伴關係及防務一體化，而不是引入更多限制。 
  • 美國應盡可能鼓勵其合作夥伴與對手開展外交活動。
  • 雖然這對美國來說是一個極為艱巨的任務，但阻止軸心國的發展對確保其全球利益至關重要。 
Summary：
Western sanctions on Russia eroded its warfighting capacity and its weapons sales. However, Russia still retains its legacy weapons customers and maintains its influence in the Middle East and Africa, especially among those who share hostility to the US and Europe. If these countries coalesce, they can help Russia sustain its war in Ukraine and expand regional allies' regional ambitions, increasing the probability of military conflict worldwide. Therefore, the US should not dismiss these countries as minor antagonists or continue its reliance on sanctions to curtail their influence. The US should constrain these states by revamping its partnerships and alliance to balance against Russia's axis. 
Coalition of the Willing 
  • Although Western sanctions severely damaged the Russian economy, they did not achieve the intended aim of stopping Russian aggression completely. 
  • The sanctions limit Russia's weapons technologies but have not put it out of lower-end weapons trade with rogue states, thus making Moscow an invaluable partner to them. 
  • Further, Moscow engaged in weapons, material, or technological exchanges with Iran, North Korea, and rogue states that the US sanctioned to sustain its operations in Ukraine. 
Armed and Dangerous 
  • Russia's new axis unites weak states that were hostile against the US. 
  • Despite continuous arms provision from the West to Ukraine, the new Russia axis allows Moscow to continue its war of attrition in Ukraine. 
  • Through weapon and technological exchanges, Moscow can empower weak states and may push nuclear proliferation among other rogue states. 
  • Beijing could support those rogue states despite not being an official member of the Russian Axis. 
  • The Russian Axis could enhance cooperation among member countries also. 
Moving Forward 
  • The US will have difficulties handling this axis, especially when it has to deal with geopolitical threats on different fronts. 
  • The West must consider the axis from a comprehensive approach rather than a set of discrete partnerships. Western policymakers must understand that sanctions are unlikely to stop Russia's cooperation with other rogue states, and they may adapt to new punitive measures and improvise. 
  • The US should bolster its Indo-Pacific and Middle East partnerships and defense integration instead of introducing more restrictions. 
  • The US should also encourage diplomacy between its partners and their rivals where possible.
  • Although the US faces a daunting task, stopping the axis from growing is crucial to secure its global interests. 
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