A NEW COLD WAR Then and

作者/Author(s): Thomas Graham 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: October 9, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Russian Strategic Autonomy
 

動盪的中俄關係 

  • 在西方孤立俄羅斯並將兩國關係稱為「無上限」友誼後，莫斯科與北京緊密結盟。北京在俄烏危機期間向莫斯科表示外交支持，但因為擔心自身會遭受西方的二次制裁，因此北京並未向俄羅斯提供致命武器或日用品。。此外，中國利用莫斯科的弱點獲得了更有利的商業協議，成功擴展了與中亞的商業關係。 
  • 在冷戰結束前，俄中關係一直不穩定。中國的經濟和軍事實力超越俄羅斯，而且仍在增長；因此，莫斯科需要另一個制衡中國的因子來保持其戰略自主權。俄羅斯正在爭取更多的大歐亞和全球南方的支持，以抗衡西方和中國。然而，這些國家在經濟、軍事和技術實力方面不足以成為強大的戰略制衡力量。對於俄羅斯而言，保持戰略自主權並避免成為中國的小夥伴，最好的選擇是修補與西方的關係。 
  • 普丁不會接受俄羅斯需要西方來改善其戰略自主性這一殘酷事實。然而，西方可以通過恢復外交接觸、對俄羅斯貿易重新開放市場，並解決俄羅斯的安全擔憂，條件是俄羅斯停止對烏克蘭的侵略。如果這招成功了，美國可以削弱中國的戰略夥伴地位，並在與北京的角力中獲得優勢。 
戰術安排 
  • 雖然協助敵對的俄羅斯獲得戰略自主權在一些人看來不合邏輯，但卻能為美國帶來巨大利益。
  • 擁有更大戰略自主權的俄羅斯能減少北京對華盛頓的優勢，並恢復俄羅斯對中亞、東北亞和北極的影響力。
  • 華盛頓面臨的問題是如何與莫斯科達成有吸引力的協議，而不會加劇俄羅斯的侵略行為，或損害美國在歐洲的利益。西方應確保烏克蘭在戰場上取得進展，但避免對俄羅斯造成全面或恥辱性的失敗。此外，西方應向俄羅斯發出信號，表明一旦其決定停火，就願意進行談判。
  • 與俄羅斯和解可能會激怒部分東歐國家。因此，美國也需向北約成員保證，會全力防止未來的俄羅斯侵略。 
 
Turbulent Russia-China Relations 
  • Moscow aligned closer to Beijing after the West isolated it and called the relationship a "no limits" friendship. Although Beijing showed diplomatic support to Moscow amid the Ukrainian Crisis, it stopped short of providing lethal arms or supplying consumer goods to Russia, fearing secondary sanctions from the West. Further, China exploited Moscow's weaknesses to obtain more favorable commercial deals and expanded its commercial ties in Central Asia. 
  • The Russia-China relationship was always troubled before the Cold War ended. China's economic and military power outperforms Russia and is still growing; therefore, Moscow needs another counterweight to China to preserve its strategic autonomy. Russia is garnering support in greater Eurasia and the global South to counter the West and China. Still, these countries are not strong strategic counterweights given the insufficient economic, military, and technological power. The best option for Russia to retain its strategic autonomy and avoid becoming China's junior partner is to mend its ties with the West. 
  • Putin will not accept the harsh fact that Russia needs the West to improve its strategic autonomy. However, the West can persuade future Russian leaders by restoring diplomatic contacts, reopening markets to Russian trade, and addressing Russia's security concerns on the condition that Russia ceases its aggression in Ukraine. If Washington succeeds, the US can deprive China of a strategic partner and gain an advantage over Beijing. 
Tactical Arrangements 
  • Although assisting a hostile Russia to gain strategic autonomy sounds illogical to some, it brings significant benefits to the US. 
  • A Russia with greater strategic autonomy reduces Beijing's advantage over Washington and can restore Russia's influence over China in Central Asia, Northeast Asia, and the Arctic. 
  • The problem for Washington is how to develop an attractive deal with Moscow without fueling greater Russian aggression or undermining the US's interest in Europe. The West should ensure Ukraine progresses on the battlefield but circumvent a total or humiliating defeat of Russia. The West should also signal to Russia that they are open for negotiation once it decides to cease fire. 
  • Reconciling with Russia may ire some East European countries. Therefore, the US should reassure NATO members to prevent future Russian aggression. 
回上層