A NEW COLD WAR Then and

作者/Author(s): Thomas Graham 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: October 9, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Russian Strategic Autonomy, Diplomacy 

摘要：

鑑於俄烏危機的現狀和俄羅斯強烈的反西方情緒，西方與俄羅斯之間的關係不太可能具有建設性。即使俄羅斯在俄烏戰爭中的戰略野心受挫，俄羅斯仍然是歐亞地區和世界的主要角色。如果美國希望對抗中國日益增長的影響力，就必須計劃與俄羅斯共存，並賦予其戰略自主權，以便在中美戰略競爭中取得優勢。 

俄羅斯戰略自主的演變 

  • 1991年蘇聯解體後，因為需要西方的援助來挽救其經濟，俄羅斯喪失的部份的戰略自主權。雖然俄羅斯對北約擴張或前蘇聯國家民主化有所不滿，但它也無法進行報復。除此之外，隨著中國持續發展，莫斯科成功改善了與北京的關係，防止中美聯手欺負它。 
  • 到了2010年，普丁著手恢復俄羅斯國內政治秩序，油價上升帶動俄羅斯經濟復甦，俄羅斯的全球影響力逐漸擴大。同時，西方聯盟對伊拉克戰爭看法的分歧，導致內部出現裂痕。而中國強勁的經濟增長也擴大了其地緣政治野心。 
  • 俄羅斯通過2008年的格俄戰爭和2014年併吞克里米亞，反對美國的敵對政策和倡議，與法國、德國和中國建立了更緊密的關係，同時保持了與歐洲國家的深入經濟聯繫。最終，俄羅斯重獲戰略自主權。
  • 然而，俄羅斯對烏克蘭的增加敵意損壞了與西方的關係，並阻礙了其追求戰略自主權的努力。 
Summary: 
It is unlikely that the relationship between the West and Russia will be constructive, given the current state of the Ukrainian Crisis and Russia's strong anti-Western sentiments. Even if Russia's strategic ambition in the Russo-Ukraine war is defeated, Russia will remain a main actor in the Eurasian region and the world. If the US wishes to counter China's growing influence, it must plan to coexist with Russia and grant it strategic autonomy to prevail in the US-China strategic competition. 

The Evolution of Russian Strategic Autonomy 
  • After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Russia lost its strategic autonomy because it needed the West's assistance to save its economy. While it complained to the West about NATO's expansion or democratization of former Soviet states, it could not retaliate. At the same time, despite China still developing, Moscow improved ties with Beijing to prevent the US and China from teaming up and bullying it. 
  • By the 2010s, Russia had considerable global power as Putin restored domestic political order, and rising oil prices helped Russia's economy recover. Further, cracks appeared in the Western coalition due to objections to the Iraq War. China's strong economic growth also allowed it to expand its geopolitical ambitions. 
  • Russia opposed the US's hostile policies and initiatives through the 2008 Georgian War and the 2014 Crimea Annexation after forging closer relations with France, Germany, and China while maintaining strong economic ties with European countries. Eventually, Russia regained its strategic autonomy. 
  • However, Russia's increased bellicosity against Ukraine ruptured its relations with the West and hampered its pursuit of strategic autonomy. 
 
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