作者/Author(s): Samuel Charap and Kaspar Pucek 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/03/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Strategy
 

其他觀點 

• 一小部分知名學者認為普京是一個防守型的行動者，他發動預防性戰爭的目的是要阻止西方威脅俄羅斯。這派說法主要認為，普丁發動戰爭的目的並不是為了佔領烏克蘭或任何歐洲國家，而是試圖阻止西方在這場衝突中的侵略
• 然而，上述說法存在缺陷。根據西方情報顯示，有部分原因是普丁準備改變烏克蘭政權，將其填滿親俄人士。 我們必須考慮普丁最初的野心和當前的能力，才能準確評估俄羅斯的威脅。普丁在戰爭開始時可能有極權主義或種族滅絕的意圖，但他在失敗後改變了自己的願望。因此，我們應該將普丁視為一名能夠根據當下能力與環境限制隨時修改戰略目標的戰略家。對俄羅斯威脅的評估應強調普丁以其現有能力所能得到的東西，而不是他的抱負。
• 然而，長期只將普丁視為戰略家是不夠的，因為他可能會在未來擴大自己的野心，從而改變對威脅的評估。雖然俄羅斯現在的能力有限，但它可以對烏克蘭造成重大損害，阻礙烏克蘭的國家發展。 
• 要正確看待俄羅斯威脅的源頭，應該要集中關注普丁在面對多重限制的情況下，採取哪些應對政策。各國政府必須意識到普丁的目標是會變化的，我們絕不可維持一成不變的評估方式，而是要定期在新的戰略環境下探討各種可能性。 
• 要了解俄羅斯的威脅，必須要準確地評估俄羅斯實力。雖然普丁一直充滿野心，但他面對的是多重限制的環境，因此他得想出很多不同的應對方法，靈活改變行動。而目前的限制，也無法決定俄羅斯未來的威脅程度。

• A minority of prominent scholars believe Putin is a defensive actor who launches a preemptive war to prevent threats to Russia from materializing. Putin did not aim to capture Ukraine or any European countries by launching a war, but he sought to stop Western encroachment from the conflict. 
• However, there is a flaw in the claim above as Putin prepared may change the Ukrainian regime filled with pro-Russian figureheads, as some Western intelligence has shown.
• We must consider Putin's initial ambitions and current capabilities to assess the Russian threat accurately. Putin may had maximalist or genocidaire intentions during the start of the war, but he changed his aspirations when he failed. Therefore, Putin should be viewed as a tactician who varies his ambitions based on current capability constraints. The assessment of Russia's threat should emphasize what Putin can plausibly get with his current ability, not his aspirations. 
• Yet, viewing Putin as a tactician is not reassuring because he may expand his ambitions in the future, changing the threat assessment. Although Russia's capabilities are limited now, it can significantly damage Ukraine and impede its national development. 
• Rightsizing Russia's threat should focus on understanding Putin's tactics under significant limitations and devising appropriate policy responses. Governments must realize Putin's goals will change and avoid static evaluations. Testing various propositions under new strategic environments regularly would be a wiser approach. 
• Yet, understanding Russia's threat must start with an accurate appraisal of Russian power. Although Putin might have large ambitions, his current capabilities restrain him. However, current constraints will not determine the extent of future Russian threat.