作者/Author(s): Samuel Charap and Kaspar Pucek 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date:10/03/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Strategy 

摘要：

距離俄烏戰火正式開打已過20餘月，學者們仍在爭論如何應對俄羅斯之侵略，以及造成這次攻擊真正的原因。大多數政策制定者和專家都認為普丁是一個極端主義者，他的目標不僅是吞併烏克蘭，還要吞併前蘇聯的領土。然而，這種威脅評估並不全面，因為它並未考慮到普丁的能力。雖然許多人都認為普丁是一個危險的侵略者，但他也是一個善於適應當下限制並改變目標的戰略家。 

普丁的目標 

  • 許多分析家認為普京是一個極端主義者，他的目標是利用對烏克蘭的入侵作為俄羅斯在烏克蘭以外地區實現主導權的第一步。如果普丁是希特勒或史達林等帝國主義者，那麼波羅的海三小國、芬蘭、波蘭和前蘇聯屬地的國家將面臨被攻擊或顛覆的危險。 
  • 有的專家認為普丁是種族滅絕者，企圖消滅烏克蘭人民和文化。普丁的軍隊曾折磨和屠殺烏克蘭平民，摧毀居民樓。 
  • 然而，這些說法都無法準確捕捉到普丁無法成為極端主義者或者種族滅絕者的侷限性。俄羅斯軍隊在其最強大的時候未能控制烏克蘭領土，自從撤退以來也未能發動成功的進攻行動。俄羅斯的行動表明了它無法超越烏克蘭的能力，但在專家們評估普丁的意圖時，並未察覺到這一點。 
  • 此外，俄羅斯未能利用其軟實力手段阻止外國干預烏克蘭危機，而戰爭的暴行更損害了俄羅斯的形象。 
  • 由於資源限制，普丁無法實現極端主義或種族滅絕的目標。然而，俄羅斯軍隊在整個戰爭期間不斷進步，其破壞能力不容小覷。所以，普丁現在的目標是什麼？ 
 
Summary: 
Twenty months into the Russo-Ukraine War, scholars are still debating how to counter Russia's aggression and the real threat that the attack poses. Most policymakers and experts assume Putin is a maximalist who aims to devour not only Ukraine but former Soviet dependencies also. Yet, the threat assessment is incomprehensive as it did not consider Putin's capabilities. While many agree that Putin is a dangerous aggressor, he is a tactician who can adjust to capability constraints and change his goals. 

Putin's Goals
  • Many analysts argue that Putin is a maximalist who aims to use the Ukraine invasion as the first step toward Russian domination beyond Ukraine. If Putin is an imperialist like Hitler or Stalin, then the Baltic states, Finland, Poland, and former Soviet dependencies would be in danger of attack or subversion. 
  • Some experts assume Putin is a genocidaire who seeks to wipe out the Ukrainian people and culture. Putin's forces had tortured and massacred Ukrainian civilians and destroyed residential buildings. 
  • However, the claims did not capture Putin's inability to be either a maximalist or genocidaire. Russian forces failed to control Ukrainian territories at the peak of their power and could not mount successful offensive operations since retreating. Russia's weaknesses showed its incapability to go beyond Ukraine, but they were ignored in assessing Putin's intentions. 
  • Further, Russia failed to use its soft power instruments to impede foreign intervention in the Ukrainian crisis, and the atrocities of the war further squandered it. 
  • Putin cannot realize his maximalist or genocidal goals due to resource constraints. However, the Russian military improved throughout the war, and its destructive capabilities should not be underestimated. Therefore, what are Putin's aims now? 
 
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