作者/Author(s): John Mueller 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: September 21, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Containment Strategy, US-China Relations 
 

蘇聯解體 

  • 凱南正確預測，腐敗蘇聯體系在擴張的同時必然會有瓦解的一天。
  1. 有些新生的共產主義國家成為一盤散沙，只好向莫斯科尋求財政援助。 
  2. 蘇聯陷入了與阿富汗反共派的持久戰。
  3. 結果，蘇聯在發現自己的經濟和軍事每況愈下後，放棄了意識形態擴張。東歐國家也擺脫了華沙公約的束縛，接受了民主和資本主義。 
  4. 與此同時，美國讓蘇聯和東歐國家解決自己的政治問題，但歡迎它們融入西方社會。
  • 此外，共產主義強硬派企圖發動政變以保持蘇聯的完整，但都失敗了，甚至間接加速蘇聯的解體。 
  • 如果蘇聯採取經濟改革和削減國防開支的措施，也許可以延長其壽命。因此，蘇聯的解體是其內部政治、經濟、社會和意識形態問題造成的，而不是美國的遏制政策。 

保持耐心 

  • 雖然中國尋求增強其全球影響力，習近平也在加強對國家的控制，但它與冷戰時期的蘇聯不同。 
  • 中國並不尋求輸出自己的意識形態，也沒有擴張領土的野心。相反，中國幫助專制國家加強統治，只尋求統一台灣或解決其他領土爭端。 
  • 然而，與蘇聯一樣，習近平對經濟發展的鐵腕控制以及中國共產黨的公信力削弱，中國也面臨著岌岌可危的國內問題。 
  • 中國希望成為大國俱樂部的一員，但其積極的政策已引起一些鄰國的不滿，拉近了他們與美國的距離。中國的一帶一路計劃也為接受國和中國自身帶來了日益增加的債務負擔。 
  • 因此，美國不需要對中國進行遏制。此外，限制中國可能會加劇美中緊張局勢而不是緩解它。
  • 美國應等待中國經濟走向成熟。中國經濟雖然微不足道，但也有自由的成分，西方可以從中國廣闊的市場和經濟問題中獲益。 
  • 美國應盡可能保持對台灣的長期支持。  
  • 美國也應該要考慮讓中國加入大國俱樂部。 
  • 總之，冷戰的重要教訓不是遏制對手，摧毀其意志，吸收其力量。相反，而是保持耐心，並讓對手的國內矛盾發揮自己的作用。

Soviet Implosion 
  • Kennan was right that the rotten Soviet system would eventually implode as it expanded.
  1. ​​​​​​​Some newborn communist countries became basket cases, turning to Moscow for financial assistance. 
  2. The Soviet Union was stuck in a protracted war with anti-communist factions in Afghanistan.
  3. As a result, the Soviet Union abandoned its ideological expansion after finding its economy and military were deteriorating. Eastern European countries also freed themselves from the Warsaw Pact and embraced democracy and capitalism.
  4. At the same time, the US let the Soviet Union and Eastern European countries settle their political matters but welcomed their integration with Western society. 
  • Further, communist hard-liners staged coup attempts to keep the Soviet Union intact but failed, accelerating the dissolution. 
  • The Soviet Union may have lasted longer with economic reform and defense spending cuts. Therefore, it was the Soviet's internal political, economic, social, and ideological problems that caused its demise, not the US's containment policy. 
Exercising Patience 
  • Although China seeks to increase its global influence and Xi is tightening his control over the country, it is unlike the Soviet Union during the Cold War. 
  • China does not seek to export its ideology or have expansive territorial ambitions. Rather, China helps authoritarian countries to strengthen their rule and only seeks to reunite Taiwan or resolve or resolve other territorial disputes. 
  • Yet, like the Soviet Union, China also has precarious domestic problems arising from Xi's iron grip over economic development and the eroding credibility and confidence in the CCP. 
  • China hopes to be part of the great power club, but its aggressive policies have drawn some neighbors' ire, pushing them closer to the US. China's BRI also caused mounting debt for recipient countries and itself. 
  • Therefore, the US does not need to assert containment on China. Further, constraining China may fuel the US-China tension rather than alleviating it. 
  • The US should wait for the Chinese economy to mature. Although minimal, the Chinese economy has liberal elements, and the West can benefit from China's vast market and economic problems.
  • The US should keep its long-standing support for Taiwan for as long as possible.
  • The US should also consider allowing China into the great power club. 
  • In short, the key lesson of the Cold War is not to contain the adversary to break its will and absorb its power. Rather, it is the virtues of patience and letting the adversary's domestic contradiction play its own. 
回上層