作者/Author(s): John Mueller 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: September 21, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Containment Strategy, US-China Relations

摘要：

美國的對華政策越來越像美國對蘇聯的遏制政策。傳統觀點認為，美國贏得冷戰的主要手段，是靠著擊退蘇聯在任何地方出現的政治和軍事存在，有效阻止共產主義的蔓延。因此，為了應對日益增長的中國挑戰，國際關係專家建議美國可以參考其對蘇聯的遏制政策的經驗，並將其應用於中國。然而，仔細評估後會發現，美國的遏制政策取得了部分成功，但也捉襟見肘。遏制政策之所以奏效，是因為蘇聯自身的錯誤和弱點。遏制政策對中國也不太可能有效，但考慮到中國目前脆弱的國內政治經濟局勢，美國應該保持耐心，讓中國自實現自身衰敗。

被高估的遏制政策 

  • 當喬治·凱南提出遏制政策以遏制蘇聯的軍事和意識形態擴張時，他還提出蘇聯有「衰退的種子」正在生長。因此，美國應該保持耐心、毅力和警惕來專注於長期的遏制政策，讓蘇聯自己停止擴張。 
  • 同時，美國透過代理人戰爭和秘密行動阻止不少國家實施共產主義。然而，美國的嘗試也有失敗案例，大多數成功的秘密政權更迭都是曇花一現，或者沒有按計劃進行。 
  • 美國阻止了朝鮮半島變成全面的共產主義，但這場衝突代價高昂，最終以僵局告終。美國還增加了在歐洲的軍事存在。然而，凱南認為蘇聯並不打算進行軍事擴張或戰爭，而是旨在協助和激發全球革命。 
  • 遏制政策對蘇聯、南斯拉夫、印尼和中國之間的共產主義陣營瓦解沒有起到作用，這是共產主義政權之間理念分歧的結果。
Summary：
The US policy against China increasingly resembles the US containment against the Soviet Union. The conventional wisdom is that the US won the Cold War by pushing back Soviet political and military presences wherever they appeared to stop communism from spreading without a hot war. Therefore, to meet the rising China challenges, IR experts suggested the US could refer to the lessons of its Soviet containment policy and apply them to China. However, closer assessment shows that the US's containment policy succeeded partially and overstretched itself. The containment policy worked because of the Soviet's own mistakes and weaknesses. Containment is also unlikely to be effective against China, but given China's current precarious domestic political economy, the US should exercise patience and let China meet its demise. 
 
The Overrated Containment Policy 
  • When George Kennan introduced the containment policy to curtail the Soviet's military and ideological expansion, he also suggested that the Soviet Union had "seeds of decay," which were growing. Therefore, the US should focus on a long-term containment policy by exercising patience, resolution, and vigilance and let the Soviet Union halt its expansion itself. 
  • At the same time, the US stopped some countries from adopting communism through proxy wars and covert operations. However, the US failed in some attempts, and most successful covert regime changes were short-lived or did not work out as planned. 
  • The US stopped the Korean Peninsula from growing into full communism, but the conflict was costly and ended in a stalemate. The US also increased its military presence in Europe. However, Kennan argued that the Soviet Union did not intend military expansion or war but aimed to assist and inspire revolutions worldwide. 
  • The containment policy did not play a role in the fracture of the communist camp among the Soviet Union, Yugoslavia, Indonesia, and China. It was a result of theological differences among the communist regimes.
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