作者/Author(s): Ethan B. Kapstein and Jacob N. Shapiro 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: September 20, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: BRI, Domestic Politics 

摘要：

中國推出一帶一路計劃的目標有兩個：首先，在國內經濟增長放緩之際擴大貿易，其次，增強軟實力，加大對受援國的政治影響力。一帶一路計劃確實實現了第一個目標，但未能實現第二個目標。

衡量一帶一路計畫的影響力 

  • 據推測，中國政府正在聯合一帶一路受援國組件一個行動者聯盟，這些國家與中國政府有著共同的抱負，並採取有利於中國利益的行動。 
  • 作者通過分析社交媒體平台上當地政治家對中國的情緒，來確定中國的軟實力是否增強。若政治家在討論中對中國持積極態度，那代表此次的影響力操作極為成功。 
  • 積極影響 
  1. 一帶一路計劃加強了中國與受援國之間的經濟關係，使中國能夠在某些政策立場上收買部分菁英。
  2. 中國的投資和基礎設施項目振興了部分非洲國家的經濟，並為當地創造了就業機會。
  • ​​​​​​​負面影響 
  1. 一帶一路計劃在受援國家引發貪污和債務問題，引發民眾不滿。 

印尼、馬來西亞和菲律賓的案例 
  • 印度尼西亞、馬來西亞和菲律賓接受了一帶一路計劃的資金，但同時又與中國存在海洋領土爭端。因此，它們是了解政治家如何應對與中國的外交政策爭端的獨特案例。 
  • 研究顯示，一帶一路的投資並沒有左右當地政治家對中國的看法。大多數政治家傾向於對中國政府持中立態度。 
  • 最可能的原因是： ​​​​​​​
  1. 這些國家高度依賴中國投資，因此在外交聲明中表現出謹慎的態度。 
  2. 與其他方法相比，中國可能會更多地使用賄賂等方式影響該國政治菁英。 ​​​​​​​
  • 研究結論認為，中國的經濟實力還沒辦法完全轉化為當地的政治支持。

Summary：
China introduced the BRI with two goals: first, to expand trade amid its slowing domestic growth, and second, to increase its soft power to exert political influence over recipient countries. The BRI did achieve its first aim, but not the second one. 

Measuring BRI-Influence 
  • Beijing is presumably building a coalition of actors within BRI recipients that share some of its ambitions and take actions that advance its interest. 
  • The authors determine whether China's soft power has increased by analyzing local politicians' sentiments towards China from social media platforms. A successful influence campaign means politicians talk about China in a positive direction. 
  • The Positives ​​​​​​​
  1. BRI improved economic ties with recipient countries, enabling China to buy over elites on some policy positions.
  2. Chinese investment and infrastructure projects supported the economies and created local job opportunities in some African countries. 
  • The Negatives 
  1. BRI generated corruption and debt distress in recipient countries, generating popular resentment. 

The Case of Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines 
  • Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines received BRI funding, but at the same time, they have maritime territorial disputes with China. Therefore, they present unique cases to understand how politicians reacted to foreign-policy disputes with China. 
  • According to the study, the BRI investments do not sway local politicians' opinions toward China. Most politicians tend to have neutral sentiments toward Beijing. 
  • The most plausible explanations are: ​​​​​​​
  1. These countries rely heavily on Chinese investment. Therefore, they express caution in their foreign-policy statements. 
  2. China may use other influence tactics, such as bribery, more heavily than other methods. ​​​​​​​
  • The study concludes that China's economic prowess has not always translated into local political support. 
 
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