作者/Author(s): Michael Bennon and Francis Fukuyama 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: August 22, 2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Economic, Belt and Road
 

 

迎合中國 

一些專家認為,中國終於發現其脆弱的貸款機構,以及缺乏國際聲望的殘酷現實將會阻礙其回收債務。因此,西方債權國應靈活地讓中國政府扮演其收債人的角色,國際貨幣基金組織也應繼續幫助受困國家。 

  • 然而,中國的動機和利益,與IMF或西方債權人存在分歧,導致彼此合作的空間非常有限。 

  • 雖然中國的貸款結構脆弱,但IMF和巴黎俱樂部成員應承認中國可以組織應對債務重組的方案,正如2018年中國政府成功與尚比亞進行雙邊債務重新談判一樣。 

  • 然而,中國缺乏透明度會減緩IMF解決「一帶一路」債務危機的努力,因為這違反了IMF的透明度和可比性準則。沒有人會願意資助IMF為中國錯誤的貸款決策買單。 

 

IMF的選擇可能會造福世界 

  • 美國和其他雙邊債權人可以幫助一帶一路借款人相互協調債務,以提高透明度和資訊共享,使借款人能夠作為一個整體與中國進行債務談判。 

  • IMF必須建立明確的條件,借款人必須在獲得新的信貸設施之前達到這些條件,避免IMF在債務重組過程中避免與中國發生衝突。 

  • 雖然有些人可能認為這些都是「反華」情緒與要求所致,但透明度和可比性的原則在債務重組中至關重要,它們可以保護IMF免受一帶一路債務危機的影響。 

 
 

Accommodating China 

  • Some experts contend China is learning the harsh fact of its fragile lending institutions and lack of global rapport will impede its debt-collecting efforts. Therefore, Western creditors should be flexible in fitting Beijing into its debt-collector role, and the IMF should continue to help distressed countries. 

  • However, China's incentives and interests diverge from the IMF or Western creditors, limiting cooperation. 

  • Although China has a fragile lending structure, the IMF and Paris Club members should acknowledge that China can organize responses for debt restructurings as Beijing succeeded in bilateral debt renegotiation with Zambia in 2018. 

  • Yet, China's lack of transparency slows the IMF's effort to solve the BRI debt crisis because it violates the IMF's norm of transparency and comparability. No one would want to fund the IMF to pay for bad Chinese lending decisions. 

Options for the IMF to benefit the world 

  • The US and other bilateral creditors could help BRI borrowers coordinate debts with one another to improve transparency and information sharing, allowing borrowers to negotiate their debts with China as a group. 

  • The IMF must establish clear conditions that borrowers must achieve before receiving new credit facilities to protect the IMF from recurring conflicts with China during debt restructuring processes. 

  • Although some may see these efforts as "anti-China," principles of transparency and comparability are key in debt restructuring and protecting the IMF from the fallout of the BRI debt crisis.