作者/Author(s): Michael Bennon and Francis Fukuyama 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 08/22/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Economic, Belt and Road 
 

一帶一路之謎 

  • 北京認為一帶一路同時涵蓋了其國內所需的經濟利益和全球戰略野心,因此北京願意為其承擔風險,向政治能力較脆弱的國家資助項目。 
  • 與其說是中國企業將借款人捲入債務陷阱以敲詐勒索,不如說是中國企業缺乏盡職調查,投標不透明且未對其財務可行性進行評估,這很可能是造成債務危機的原因。 
  • 與普羅大眾的看法相反,一帶一路戰略對西方國家的主要威脅其實不是戰略上的威脅,而是一帶一路可能會破壞發展中國家的債務結構,並為國際金融機構帶來更多問題。雖然西方有一個「巴黎俱樂部」機制來處理主權違約和債權人之間的合作問題,但中國並不是會員國。此外,中國的借貸程序模糊不清,國際機構很難準確判斷中國與其債務人之間的債務關係。 

隱形債務的問題 

  • 不少陷入債務困境的國家除了虧欠一帶一路計畫債務之外,其實背負著更多非中國機構的債務。然而,經過仔細檢查後發現,被排除在官方債務統計之外的「隱藏一帶一路債務」,其實是造成負債國沉重債務危機的元兇之一。 
  • 隱性債務之所以成為問題,是因為債權人不知道這些債務的存在,因此無法準確評估信貸風險。此外,一旦發生債務危機,債權人發現了隱性債務,他們將不願繼續債務重組進程。 
  • 雖然中國願意協助紓解債務壓力,但不透明的談判過程會讓與其他債權人的債務重組之間問題更加複雜,同時還需要考慮比較問題。 
  • 國際貨幣基金組織擁有重組隱性債務的機制和靈活性,特別是當貸款方是巴黎俱樂部成員時,將會更具彈性。然而,目前的IMF 在實力與程序方面尚不全面,因為它在面對中國沒有足夠的議價能力,而且在債務國的部分議題上也相對束手無策,因為中國對債務國的影響力仍非常大。 
 

BRI's Mystery ​​​​​​

  • Beijing has domestic economic interests and global strategic ambitions for the BRI, thus willing to take risks to fund projects in politically vulnerable countries. 
  • nstead of entangling borrowers in a debt trap to extort concessions, Chinese firms' lack of due diligence is most likely the cause of the debt crisis as the bids are intransparent and not assessed for their financial viability. 
  • Contrary to popular claims, BRI's main threat to the Western world is not strategic but the debts that destabilize developing countries, which may cause problems for international financial institutions. Although the West has a Paris Club regime to handle issues on sovereign default and cooperation between creditors, China is not part of the group. Further, the obscure Chinese lending processes make it tough for international institutions to pinpoint a country's exact problems. 
The Problems with Hidden Debts 
  • BRI debts are not the sole cause of the current debt crisis, as some distressed countries owe more to non-Chinese institutions. Yet, on close inspection, hidden BRI debts excluded from official debt statistics are one of the causes of the debt crisis. 
  • Hidden debts are a problem because creditors do not know such obligations exist and thus cannot accurately assess credit risks. Further, when a debt crisis happens and creditors uncover the hidden debts, they will be reluctant to continue the debt restructuring process. 
  • Although China has assisted in relieving the stress of debts, the obscure negotiation process complicates debt restructuring with other creditors, especially when comparability of treatment is critical. 
  • The IMF has mechanisms and flexibility in restructuring hidden debts, especially when the lenders are Paris Club members. However, the IMF's current procedures are insufficient because it does not have enough bargaining power over China, and some of its frameworks are not working, given the leverage of China over debtor countries.