作者：Ali Wyne
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 31, 2023

Dire Straits

如果中國成功實現經濟和技術獨立，與西方影響脫鉤，中國將能夠有效減少對美元的依賴，並擁有一條不受西方影響的半導體供應鏈。上而述情況將促使中國以武力統一台灣，或在南海、東海急印度的爭端邊界地區更積極地提出領土主權要求。

如果中國政府能擺脫西方的經濟壓力，發展中國家也會更樂於採用中國的技術平台或加入中國的地緣經濟事業。由於中國目前的社會經濟面臨許多困境與問題，中國不太可能在亞洲實現地區霸權。然而，西方國家還是要小心處理中國正在試著規避出口管制等動作。

相互依賴真能實現和平？雖然相互依賴無法實際地阻止戰爭，但它可以增加潛在交戰方的成本，迫使他們重新考慮開戰計劃。除此之外，相互依賴也可以減緩對抗，創造合理控管大國競爭的機會。然而，中國、美國、俄羅斯和歐盟皆對相互依賴的未來抱持悲觀態度。這種懷疑可能會讓領導人最終決定採用強制手段甚至是戰爭來確保自己的國家利益。

COVID-19 和俄烏危機充分展示了深度相互依賴的危險，但缺乏經濟一體化也會削弱經濟制裁。西方不該放棄相互依賴，而是要追求一種能夠涵蓋其戰略競爭對手在內的永續相互依賴。西方也得接受俄羅斯和中國將繼續存在的事實。因此，西方國家應該要學會管理因依賴或脫離對手而產生的風險。

Dire StraitsIf China succeeds in achieving economic and technological independence from the West, China will rely on the US dollar less and have a semiconductor supply chain free of Western influence.The situation above will encourage China to reunify Taiwan by force or become more aggressive in claiming territories in the South China Sea, East China Sea, and the disputed border with India.Developing states will be more comfortable adopting Chinese technology platforms or joining Chinese geoeconomic undertakings if Beijing insulates itself from Western economic pressures.Given China's current socioeconomic predicaments, it is unlikely China can achieve regional hegemony in Asia. However, the West should be cautious as China is working to bypass the export controls.Peace through Interdependence?Although interdependence fails to prevent wars, it can increase the costs of potential belligerents, thus causing them to reconsider their plans. Interdependence can also slow down antagonism and create opportunities for managing great power competition.Yet, China, the US, Russia, and the EU are pessimistic about the future of interdependence. The skepticism may push leaders to use coercive measures or even war to secure their national interests.The COVID-19 and the Ukrainian Crisis have shown the dangers of profound interdependence, but lack of economic integration also blunts economic sanctions.Instead of abandoning interdependence, the West should pursue a sustainable interdependence that includes its strategic competitors.The West should also accept the fact that Russia and China will endure. Therefore, the West should learn to manage risks that emanate from dependence or detachment from its rivals.