FP: 習近平對安全的執著 (Part 2)


作者：Sheena Chestnut Greitens
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jul 28, 2023
 

習近平的賭注

  • 習近平現在將「全球安全倡議」(GSI)視為其實現總體國家安全觀對外方面的重要工具，旨在協調中國內部安全與全球共同安全。不過，習近平的全球安全倡議最終之目標是強化習近平的政權安全。
  • 全球安全倡議概述了區域和全球安全挑戰的現狀，同時強調了總體國家安全觀的核心原則。
  • 中共將西方的壓制和遏制視為對中國國際安全和中共在中國社會合法性之根本威脅。
  • 北京對GSI的期望：
    • 創建一個新的全球安全治理體系，規避或削弱美國聯盟體系的重要性。
    • 削弱美國遏制中國或煽動政治革命的能力。
    • 建立符合中共利益的地區和全球安全新秩序。
  • 中國在改變區域安全方面已取得初步成效，例如他們促成了伊朗與沙烏地阿拉伯的和解，同時主辦非傳統安全挑戰會議，宣揚自己是國內安全和社會穩定的典範。
  • 中國國內負責安全工作的官員也積極開展外交活動，支持GSI的工作。
  • 專家預測，中國可能會提高其對外開放程度，以改善逐漸衰弱的經濟環境。然而，比起經濟增長，習近平更看重政權安全與穩定，這可能會帶來更多問題與挑戰，因為經濟問題也可能威脅到政權穩定。

給美國的警示

  • 美國政策制定者應該要正確地認識GSI的潛力，它對發展中國家的領導人很有吸引力。這些領導者大多對西方感到不滿，或覺得自己被西方拋棄了，因此他們較可能會接受美國安全架構外的其他選擇。
  • 美國應與發展中國家合作，積極解決當前安全架構下的非傳統安全挑戰，改革國際體系的規範。
  • 美國應積極主動地與不親美的國家政府接觸，將其納入美國的安全架構，以應對新的全球挑戰。
 

Xi's Wager

  • Xi's current preferred instrument for realizing the external aspects of the comprehensive national security concept is the Global Security Initiative, which is an action to coordinate China's internal security with global common security. GSI's ulterior aim is to reinforce Xi's regime security.
  • GSI outlined prevailing regional and global security challenges while emphasizing the core principles of comprehensive national security concepts.
  • China viewed Western suppression and containment as fundamental threats to China's international security and the legitimacy of the CCP in Chinese society.
  • Beijing's Aspiration for GSI:
    • Create new global security governance that circumvents or curtails the significance of the US alliance system.
    • Impede US's capability to contain China or instigate a political revolution.
    • Establish a new regional and global security order that forwards the interests of the CCP.
  • China already has preliminary success in changing regional security arrangements, such as brokering the Iran-Saudi Arabia reconciliation, hosting conventions on non-traditional security challenges, and promoting itself as an example of domestic security and social stability.
  • Chinese internal security officials also took proactive roles in diplomacy to support GSI's effort.
  • Observers predict China may be more open to the outside world to improve its economic condition. However, Xi is gambling on stabilizing regime security first over economic growth. It could be problematic as domestic economic challenges will also threaten regime stability.

Caveats for the US

  • US policymakers should be aware of the potential of GSI because it appeals to leaders from developing countries. These leaders will accept alternatives to US's security architecture as they are dissatisfied or feel abandoned by the West.
  • The US should cooperate with developing countries to address non-traditional security challenges under the current security architecture and reform the norms of the international system.
  • The US should proactively engage governments that are not close to it and include them in its security architecture to address new global challenges.
回上層