Can the US export control succeed?

• Biden's technology war against China protects US technology supremacy and security. Yet, from a broader aspect, its measures were to contain China's technological growth.
• Decoupling may work for the short term, but it may encourage China to achieve self-reliance faster, making export controls ineffective in the long term.
• Export control may work, but it will increase hostility from the target. China is already retaliating against US firms and those who were friendly with the US.
• Countries with strong economic ties with China might berate the US if it prolongs the export control measures and affects other economies.

What type of authoritarian is Xi Jinping?

• Xi has amassed power that sees him become China's most powerful leader since 1949.
• Authoritarian leaders are prone to poor decision-making that leads to a country's demise, but there are instances of wise authoritarians that push the country forward.
• Xi succeeded in improving China's domestic governance and global influence. However, he is more error-prone as his grip tightens, demonstrated by the case of COVID-19 mismanagement and controls on domestic tech companies.

Will Asia balance effectively?

• China failed to prevent its neighbors from aligning closer to the US and became more wary of Beijing after practicing "wolf-warrior" diplomacy and acting aggressively in territorial waters.
• Collective balancing against China is possible but challenging as some countries want to align with the US for security while maintaining market access to China. These countries also avoid becoming collateral damage in the US-China conflict.

How would the rest of the world respond?

• Many countries prefer a hedging strategy and avoid being involved deeply in the US-China conflict.
• Some countries also hope to manipulate the conflict and gain benefits from both sides.