作者：Aaron Friedberg
來源：War on the Rocks
日期：Jul 25, 2023

民主聯盟(續)

  • 歐洲和亞洲：
    • 歐洲和亞洲許多國家都意識到，雖然他們處於不同的位置，但它們都面臨著來自獨裁國家的威脅，並一致認為它們可能會面臨類似的困境。
    • 北約明確將中國定為歐洲-大西洋安全體系的體制性挑戰，他們也擔心印太地區，特別是台灣海峽的局勢風險。
    • 因此，不少歐洲和亞洲國家相互簽訂了新的戰略合作協議。歐洲各國政府還警告北京，如果中國入侵台灣，歐洲可能會對其實施經濟制裁。
  • 美國、亞洲和歐洲
    • 美國、亞洲和歐洲擔心來自侵略性專制大國的威脅，因此加強了彼此之間的防務合作。
    • 他們還重整了與俄羅斯和中國的經濟往來。雖然這些國家也不願與中國完全脫鉤，但希望能降低經濟依賴所帶來的風險。
    • 對於歐洲國家而言，中國是他們不可或缺的貿易夥伴，因此他們在處理對住中貿易問題上大多很優柔寡斷。而美國的經濟政策目前已逐漸轉向利己主義和保護主義，中國可以利用這一點扼殺民主鏈。

全球南方成為競爭重點

  • 專制軸心與民主聯盟之間的競爭已經擴散到全球南方的影響力競爭上。
  • 中國一直把發展中國家視為為抗衡西方影響力、推動自身成為全球領導者的重要領域。這些國家也是中國出口的重要市場。
  • 鑒於發展中國家的重要性增加，中國發起了新的全球安全與發展倡議，以吸引這些國家加入中國集團
  • 中國在全球南方的影響力不斷增強，這引發了民主聯盟的焦慮，但他們尚未做出一致且有效的回應。
  • 西方應該從加強民主發展中國家的實踐開始，對那些提供關鍵礦物的國家抵制中國的影響力，並注入能惠及發展中國家整個社會的投資。
 

The Democratic Coalition (continued):

  • Europe and Asia:
    • Europe and Asia realize they face threats from authoritarian powers despite being in different war theaters and agree they will face similar predicaments.
    • NATO explicitly branded China as a systemic challenge to Europe-Atlantic security and is worried about the situation in Indo-Pacific, particularly in the Taiwan Strait.
    • Therefore, some European and Asian countries forged new strategic cooperation agreements with each other. European governments also cautioned Beijing on the possibility of economic sanctions if China invades Taiwan.
  • The US, Asia, and Europe:
    • The US, Asia, and Europe have increased defense cooperation as they feared the threat from aggressive authoritarian great powers.
    • They also revamped their economic dealings with Russia and China. Although they are reluctant to decouple completely from China, they hope to de-risk their economic relations.
    • Since China is an indispensable trade partner, European countries are the most hesitant to revise their trade relations. Further, US economic policy has turned self-interested and protectionist, which China can manipulate to stifle the democratic chain.

The Competition for Global South

  • The competition between the authoritarian axis and the democratic coalition has spilled into intensified influence competition in the global south.
  • China has always seen developing countries as important domains to counter the West's influence and propel itself into global leadership. They will also be important markets for Chinese exports.
  • Seeing the increased importance of developing countries, China launched new global security and development initiatives to attract them into its orbit.
  • Chinese increased influence attempt in the global south drove anxiety in the democratic coalition, but they have yet to respond coherently and effectively.
  • The West should start by reinforcing democratic practices in democratic developing countries, countering Chinese influence in countries that supply critical minerals, and pouring investment that would benefit the entire society of developing countries.
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