作者：Neil Thomas
來源：ChinaFile/Foreign Policy
日期：Jul 24, 2023
 
 

搖擺在外交與經濟之間

  • 習近平越來越排斥西方的全球領導地位，並希望取代美國。
  • 習近平在調解和平、推進新的多極國際秩序倡議、修補與西方領袖日益惡化的關係、約束「戰狼」外交官員、改善中國的全球敘事方面扮演或試圖扮演重要角色。
  • 習近平希望推動中國成為重要的經濟夥伴、全球南方的代言人和應對跨國挑戰的重要參與者。
  • 習近平還希望提高中國的國際合法性，以實現他對台灣統一和在國際事務上與美國領導人平起平坐的野心。
  • 中國投射外交影響力的企圖可能會讓華盛頓及其盟國產生更高的威脅感，也會導致美國通過削弱中國的地緣經濟實力進行報復，加劇中國國內的經濟問題。然而，這可能會煽動民族主義，提高中共在其國內的合法性。

加強對黨的控制

  • 習近平迫使他的政治競爭對手退休，任用他的心腹擔任高層職位，成功加強了對中共的控制，從而使他對黨的控制更加深入。
  • 雖然習近平的忠實支持者層層包圍著他，但他們的影響力可能會導致習近平支持者之間也形成派系。
  • 習近平透過賦予領導人同等權力來平衡不同派別的權力，但基層官員同時也在爭取關鍵機構的職位。
  • 次級派系權力的碎片化，可能會持續削弱北京的治理能力，阻礙實現重要政策。

總之，習近平在其第三個任期內必須解決三個平衡問題。短期內，習近平可能會增強中國的國力，但這就無法完全發揮其經濟潛力。從長遠來看，這可能會延長中國的經濟停滯期。

Between Diplomatic Struggle and Economy

  • Xi increasingly rejects Western global leadership and hopes to replace the US.
  • Xi played or tried to take significant roles in brokering peace, advancing new multipolar international order initiatives, mending deteriorating ties with Western leaders, restraining his "wolf-warrior" diplomats, and improving Chinese global narratives.
  • Xi hopes to promote China as a crucial economic partner, a voice of the global south, and a vital actor in addressing transnational challenges.
  • Xi also wants to increase China's international legitimacy to advance his ambitions of Taiwan reunification and an equal with US leaders in international affairs.
  • China's attempt to project diplomatic influence may create a higher threat perception in Washington and its allies. It may cause the US to retaliate by weakening China's geoeconomic power, aggravating China's domestic economic problems. However, it may fan nationalism and improve CCP's domestic legitimacy.

Tightening the Grip on the Party

  • Xi increased his grip on the CCP by forcing his political rivals to retire and filling top posts with loyalists, making his control over the party profound.
  • Although Xi's loyalists surround him, their influence may cause factions among Xi supporters to rival each other.
  • Xi balanced different factional power by giving leaders equivalent powers to balance each other but lower-level officials and competing to gain positions in key institutions.
  • Sub-factional power fragmentation may exacerbate Beijing's weakened governance capacity and impede it from realizing key policies.

In sum, Xi has three balancing acts that he must address in his third tenure. In the short term, Xi may enhance China's national power but will not materialize its full economic potential. In the long term, it may prolong China's economic stagnation rather than a national rejuvenation.

回上層