作者：Aaron Friedberg
來源：War on the Rocks
日期：Jul 25, 2023

摘要:
俄烏危機將世界分裂為對立的地緣政治、經濟和意識形態集團，其中明顯有三個集團：專制軸心、民主聯盟和全球南方。
 

專制軸心

  • 冷戰結束後，中國和俄羅斯認為美國會阻止他們的野心，並剝奪他們的勢力範圍。當兩國反對美國的遏制時，這一假想就變成了現實，俄烏戰爭更是加劇了他們認同這件事情。因此，中俄兩國因共同的威脅感而變得更加緊密。
  • 雖然兩國的意識形態價值觀不同，但中俄兩國對西方自由主義有著共同的敵意。
  • 俄羅斯和中國也有相互交織的命運。
    • 中國是唯一支持俄羅斯對烏行動的夥伴。
    • 如果俄羅斯在俄烏戰爭中失敗了，那麼中國就會更缺乏適合制衡西方的力量。

民主聯盟

  • 俄烏危機拉近了美國與歐亞民主夥伴之間的距離，但各國在國家利益、預算限制和當地政治方面的差異可能會阻礙他們的合作。
  • 美國與亞洲
    • 鄰近中國的國家對中國的意圖和行動會更加警惕。他們也擔心亞太地區將成為烏克蘭之後的下一個戰場。
    • 印太國家主動增加國防開支，深化與志同道合夥伴的雙邊和多邊關係。
    • 美國必須平衡歐洲和亞洲之間的優先事項，並增加整體國防預算。雖然這可能會招致國內民眾反對。
  • 美國與歐洲：
    • 俄烏危機讓歐洲民主國家更加接近，並允許瑞典和芬蘭加入北約組織。
    • 歐洲國家也加大了國防開支，這可以減輕其與美國之間的深刻摩擦。
    • 各國對戰爭結束的方式有不同意見。德國和法國希望普丁的入侵失敗，但卻願意在衝突結束後重新與俄羅斯進行經濟上的接觸。相比之下，前蘇聯成員國希望俄羅斯完全失敗。
    • 目前，跨大西洋關係似乎穩定，但長期的衝突或升級所帶來的成本可能會考驗它們之間的聯盟。
    • 儘管美國堅定不移地反對俄羅斯並建立更緊密的跨大西洋關係，但國內挑戰可能會考驗美國對歐洲的承諾。
Summary:

The Ukrainian Crisis fractured the world into opposing geopolitical, economic, and ideological blocs. Three blocs are evident: the authoritarian axis, the democratic coalition, and the global south.

The Authoritarian Axis

  • After the Cold War, China and Russia assumed the US would block their ambitions and deny them a sphere of influence. It became a reality when they opposed US containment efforts, intensified by the Ukrainian Crisis. Therefore, China and Russia became closer due to common threat perceptions.
  • Russia and China share a common hostility toward the West's liberalism despite having different ideological values.
  • Russia and China also have intertwined fates.
    • China is the only viable partner for Russia to support Russian operations in Ukraine.
    • If Russia falters in Ukraine, China does not have a suitable counterweight against the West.

The Democratic Coalition

  • The Ukrainian Crisis brought US's democratic partners in Europe and Asia closer, but the differences in national interests, budget constraints, and local politics among actors may hinder their cooperation.
  • The US and Asia:
    • Countries proximal to China became more wary of China's intentions and actions. They also fear the Asia-Pacific region will be the next battlefield after Ukraine.
    • Indo-Pacific countries took the initiative to increase defense spending and deepen bilateral and multilateral relations with like-minded partners.
    • The US must balance its priorities between Europe and Asia and increase its overall defense budget despite domestic opposition.
  • The US and Europe:
    • The Ukrainian Crisis brought European democracies closer and allowed Sweden and Finland into NATO.
    • European countries also increased their defense spending, which can alleviate the profound friction with the US.
    • Countries have different opinions on how the war should end. Germany and France hope Putin's invasion will fail but are willing to reengage Russia economically after the conflict ends. In contrast, former Soviet Union members hope for Russia's complete defeat.
    • Transatlantic relations seem steady at the moment, but the cost of prolonged conflict or escalation may test their bond.
    • Although the US is steadfast in opposing Russia and forging closer transatlantic ties, domestic challenges may test its commitment to Europe.
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