The Diplomat: 中國從「一帶一路」轉向「全球發展倡議」 (Part 1)

作者：Lunting Wu
來源：The Diplomat
日期：Jul 11, 2023

摘要：
一帶一路倡議（BRI）即將迎來十周年，但其勢頭正在減弱，取而代之的是「全球發展倡議」（GDI）。2021年9月，習近平在聯合國大會上提出了全球發展倡議（GDI），以應對阻礙聯合國永續發展目標實現過程中的全球性挑戰，有超過60個國家對這一倡議表示歡迎。以下是對 BRI 和 GDI 之間區別的展望：

兩個倡議的背景差異

  • 國際經濟背景：
    • 習近平提出一帶一路倡議時，正值其與發展中國家貿易的高峰期，而世界其他地區正從全球金融危機中復甦。因此，該倡議是北京促進與全球南方國家關係的外交工具。
    • COVID-19疫情打亂了全球供應鏈，使許多一帶一路項目被迫停擺。中國決定開始實施全球發展倡議，這是一項更少依賴重型基礎設施建設的新發展倡議。
  • 地緣政治背景
    • 一帶一路倡議始於美國歐巴馬政府開始其「重返亞太」戰略之時。美國及其盟國也有與 BRI 相對應的發展安排。
    • 相較之下，北京引入全球發展倡議是為應對與華府之間的大國競爭。
  • 國內考量因素：
    • 一帶一路倡議始於中國引領全球從金融危機中恢復之時。
    • 中國啟動全球發展倡議，是因為政府預算赤字的問題已經開始阻礙資金支援一帶一路項目的能力。
    • 全球發展金融體系著眼於永續和可盈利的項目，以促進循環經濟增長和增加國內消費。
    • 地點：
      • 習近平在哈薩克提出了「絲綢之路經濟帶」，在印尼提出了「海上絲綢之路」，兩者都是發展中國家。
      • 習近平在聯合國大會上介紹了全球發展倡議，這表明他的目標是讓全球發展倡議成為一個具包容性的多邊安排。
Suammry：

The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is heading into its 10th anniversary but is losing steam and being replaced by the Global Development Initiative (GDI). Xi Jinping introduced the GDI in September at the UNGA to address global challenges that hinder the UN Sustainable Development Goals, and over 60 countries welcomed the initiative. The following gives an outlook on the difference between BRI and GDI.

Contextual Differences.

  • International economic background:
    • Xi introduced the BRI during the peak of trade with developing countries while the rest of the world was recovering from the Global Financial Crisis. The BRI was Beijing's diplomatic instrument to foster relations with the Global South.
    • COVID-19 disrupted the global supply chain and halted many BRI projects. China decided to commence the GDI, a new development initiative less reliant on heavy infrastructure construction.
  • Geopolitical context:
    • BRI started when the US began its "pivot to Asia" strategy. The US and its allies also have development arrangements to counter the BRI.
    • In contrast, Beijing introduced the GDI amid great power competition with Washington.
  • Domestic considerations:
    • The BRI began when China led the global recovery from the financial crisis.
    • China started the GDI when it had a government budget deficit problem that hindered its capacity to finance BRI projects.
    • GDI focuses on sustainable and financially profitable projects that generate sustainable economic growth and higher domestic consumption.
    • Venue:
      • Beijing proposed the Silk Road Economic Belt in Kazakhstan and the Maritime Silk Road in Indonesia, which were developing countries.
      • Xi introduced the GDI during the UNGA, signifying his aim to make GDI an inclusive multilateral arrangement.
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