FA: 美中關係—不抱太大的期望值也是一種美德


作者：Ryan Hass
來源：Foreign Affairs
日期：Jun 28, 2023

摘要：
雖然中美兩國都想解凍關係，但在兩國都有一定程度的基本戰略評估時，沒有突破性進展也許是明智的選擇。這能讓雙方為進一步溝通鋪平道路，澄清彼此的意圖，最終讓雙方更好地處理分歧，就共同關心的問題進行合作。因此，拜登政府應保持較低期望值，尋找降低衝突風險的方法，並尋求與中國共同關心的議題，防止兩國關係螺旋式惡化。
 

舒適的中立

  • 當前的中美關係正在發生變化，但既沒有改善也沒有惡化。雖然很難取得突破，但雙方都在通過政府高級官員之間的會晤探索修補關係的途徑。
  • 華盛頓必須有明確的目標和戰略，才能最大限度地擴大與中國政府官員交流的成果。
  • 兩國應致力於建立更持久、更具成效的雙邊關係，造福兩國的長遠利益。
  • 這一過程很漫長，所以他們也需要現實的期望與目標來恢復兩國關係，防止進一步惡化。

從歷史中學習

  • 華盛頓和北京可以控制自己的預期，但他們可能會採取會讓對方不悅的行動。真正的試金石在於透過謹慎的外交方式來管理壓力因素。
  • 由於中美兩國目前仍將相互敵視，並且擁有相互競爭的全球願景，因此兩國應對未來關係保持謙虛，並接受任何積極的變化。
  • 中美兩國不應認為它們目前的關係有任何歷史可比性。。他們當前的關係很危險，但雙方因為依賴程度很深，所以不會導致戰爭。
  • 拜登和習近平都不該拿美中關係當政治籌碼，否則他們將無法在雙邊關係取得進展。他們應該了解對方的需求並做出妥協。
  • 美國應就需要相互克制和遵守保障和平的規範等問題，向中國提出具體提議。
Summary：
Although the US and China want to thaw their frosty relations, the lack of a breakthrough may be better for both nations, especially when they keep their basic strategic assessment of the other. Yet, it allows both sides to pave the way for further communications and clarify mutual intentions that eventually will let both manage their difference better and cooperate on shared concerns. Therefore, Biden's administration should keep expectations low while seeking ways to reduce conflict risk and search shared agenda with China to prevent their relations from spiraling downwards.
 

Less is More

  • The current US-China relationship is changing but is neither improving nor deteriorating. Rather, they are exploring ways to mend their ties through meetings with top government officials, although the chances for a breakthrough are slim.
  • Washington must have clear objectives and strategies to achieve them to maximize the results from exchanges with Chinese government officials.
  • Both nations should aim for a more durable and productive bilateral relationship to benefit their long-term interests.
  • Although the process is slow, they would also need realistic expectations to restore their relations and prevent them from deteriorating further.

Learning from the Past

  • Washington and Beijing can manage their expectations, but they may take actions that would upset the other side. Their real litmus test would be managing stressors through careful diplomacy.
  • Since the US and China will remain hostile toward each other for the time being and have competing global visions, they should be modest about their future relations and accept any positive changes.
  • The US and China should not assume their current relationship has any historical analogy. Their current relations are dangerous but will not lead to war, especially when deeply interdependent.
  • Biden and Xi should not take US-China relations hostage to gain political advantage, or they will not progress in restoring their relations. They should recognize what their counterpart needs and compromise.
  • The US should offer concrete proposals to China on items that require reciprocal restraint and adherence to norms that guarantee peace.
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