作者：Charlie Vest and Agatha Kratz
來源：Atlantic Council
日期：Jul 21, 2023

 

制定反制措施的挑戰與困難

• 了解台灣的立場與觀點： 由於兩岸之間的貿易相互依賴程度很高，台灣可能不會願意支持隊中的反制措施。如果有台灣的強力支持，將會使協調更加容易。
• 在G7內明確設定觸發點：**G7成員必須就哪些類型的中國行動會讓G7祭出反制措施達成一致。況且，如果是台灣或美國挑釁中國，G7成員之間的協調將會面臨很大的挑戰。
• 共同協調，向中國發出嚇阻訊號：G7成員國可能會在部署反制措施的觸發點上產生意見分歧，尤其是當中國對台灣的侵略是模稜兩可的時候。也有一些專家擔心中國會採取低於門檻的行動以避免被懲罰。
• 建立必要的工具：**各國必須加強其法律工具，以提高反制措施的有效性。
• **制定緩衝的範圍與戰略：**任何制裁計劃都必須有相應的金融和貿易協議，以彌補那些失去對中貿易和投資損失。
• 預測市場反應： G7必須盡可能避免打擊全球供應鏈，否則會降低國內政治對制裁的支持力度。

建議

• G7夥伴和台灣應該協調明確的紅線和適當的反制措施，並讓中國知道他們使用制裁的決心。
• G7 應該與其他多邊機構協調制裁。
• G7 必須了解經濟上的不對稱性，以確定制裁的潛在成本、弱點和侷限性。
• G7 成員必須加強和協調其法律架構。
• G7 應該投資於能夠增強經濟反制措施效力的工具。
• G7應保持溝通管道暢通，以調節緩和緊張局勢。
• G7 應該在可信的威脅和可信的保證之間取得平衡，以確保有效的威懾。

Challenges in Formulating Countermeasures

• Understanding Taiwan's Perspective: Due to the deep trade interdependence with China, Taiwan may be reluctant to support the countermeasures. On the contrary, strong support from Taiwan will make the coordination easier.
• Defining clear triggers across the G7: G7 members must agree on what type of Chinese actions should trigger the countermeasures. Further, if Taiwan or the US provoked China, alignment among G7 would be challenging.
• Coordinated signaling to deter: G7 members may disagree on the triggers for deploying countermeasures, especially when Chinese aggression against Taiwan is ambiguous. Some experts fear China will act below the threshold to avoid punishment.
• Building necessary tools: Countries must enhance their legal tools to increase the effectiveness of the countermeasures.
• Scoping a cost mitigation strategy: Any sanctions program must have corresponding financial and trade protocols to support lost trade and investment with China.
• Predicting the market reaction: The G7 must avoid pummeling the global supply chain as it will undermine domestic political support for sanctions.

Recommendations

• G7 partners and Taiwan should coordinate the red lines and appropriate countermeasures, then let China understand their resolve in using sanctions.
• G7 should coordinate the sanctions with other multilateral institutions.
• G7 must understand the economic asymmetries to identify the potential costs, vulnerabilities, and limitations of sanctions.
• G7 members must enhance and coordinate their legal frameworks.
• G7 should invest in tools that can enhance the effectiveness of economic countermeasures.
• G7 should keep lines of communication open to regulate and de-escalate tensions.
• G7 should balance credible threats with credible assurances to ensure effective deterrence.