FA: 習近平稱他正為中國的戰爭做準備

作者/Author(s): John Pomfret and Matt Pottinger 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affiars 

日期/Date: 03/29/2023 

關鍵字/Keywords: Military 



  • 在「兩會」期間,中共中央軍委發表了一篇文章,呼籲加快國防現代化進程,並加強軍民融合。它甚至輕描淡寫地吹噓了自己在擊敗美軍武裝的國共戰爭和朝鮮戰爭中的威力和以前的成功。

  • 2022年12月,北京頒布了一項新法律,使解放軍能夠輕易動員其後備軍隊,在戰爭期間快速組織補充戰鬥部隊的系統。
  • 2023年2月,全國人民代表大會通過一項法令,賦予中共中央軍委權力,懲罰任何反對台灣統一、聲稱對被占領領土擁有合法主權或利用其來獲得公眾支持的個人 
  • 自2022年12月以來,中國政府在主要城市設立了國防動員辦公室,並開始建設或升級防空洞和戰時緊急醫院。一些城市還封鎖了海外IP地址,以阻礙追蹤中國的戰爭準備。
  • 這次 "兩會 "證實了北京戰略的轉變。人民政協甚至討論要將親台獨人士列入黑名單的建議,如果他們仍然頑固不化,就將他們暗殺 
  • 即將卸任的李克強總理還宣布,其軍事預算比前一個年度增加了7.2%,這已經超過太平洋地區所有美國條約盟國的支出 
  • 習近平就中國的軍事擴張發表了重要講話
  1. 習近平持較為悲觀的看法,他認為中國將面臨全新挑戰,但如果遵循他的指導,這些挑戰是可以克服的 
  2. 習近平指責美國正在圍堵和壓制中國。雖然拜登致力於減緩美中關係的惡化,但習近平仍持續為對峙做準備 
  3. 習近平認為中國應自給自足,減少技術、食品和製造業對外依賴 
  4. 習近平也強調,中國必須著重發展自主創新,強化國防實力,並組織一個能夠在戰時動員後備軍人的體系 
  5. 習近平斷言「祖國統一」對於實現他的中華民族偉大復興目標至關重要 
  • 從習近平「打貪」以及清零政策方面,我們不難發現他是一個言出必行的人,因此世界必須要認真對待習近平的言論。習最近的演說顯示他有意使用武力佔領台灣,但他是否會將美中關係升級到無法控制的程度,我們尚無從得知。 
Xi Jinping has shown indicators that he is preparing China for war. Although a conflict is still uncertain, the world cannot ignore Xi's words. 
  • During the "two-sessions," the Central Military Commission of the CCP published an essay calling for accelerating national defense modernization and intensifying Military-Civil Fusion. It even lightly boasted its might and previous success in defeating US-armed Kuomintang and the US in the Korean War. 
  • In December 2022, Beijing enacted a new law that enables the PLA to easily mobilize its reserve forces and organize a system for replenishing combat troops during a war. 
  • In February 2023, the National People's Congress adopted a decree giving the Central Military Commission the power to punish any individual who opposes a Taiwan takeover, claims legal authority over occupied territory, or uses it to garner public support for its decisions. 
  • Since December 2022, the Chinese government has opened National Defense Mobilization offices in major Chinese cities and started constructing or upgrading air-raid shelters and wartime emergency hospitals. Some cities also blocked overseas IP addresses from accessing government websites, possibly to hinder attempts to track China's preparation for war. 
  • The "two-sessions" meeting confirms a shift in Beijing's strategy. The Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference discussed a proposal to blacklist pro-Taiwanese independence individuals and assassinate them if they remained stubborn. 
  • Outgoing Premier Li Keqiang also announced an increase of 7.2% from last year in the military budget, which exceeds the spending of all US treaty allies in the Pacific. 
  • Xi gave significant speeches on China's military expansion.  
  1. Xi views China pessimistically and will face new struggles, which can be overcome by following his guidance. 
  2. Xi blamed the US is containing and suppressing China. Although Biden is committed to slowing down US-China from deteriorating, Xi is preparing for a confrontation.
  3. Xi also stressed Chinese self-sufficiency, reducing foreign reliance on technology, food, and manufactured goods. 
  4. Xi emphasized China must focus on its innovation efforts to enhance national defense and organize a system that can mobilize reservists during wartime. 
  5. Xi asserted "the unification of motherland" is crucial for his great rejuvenation campaign. 
  • The world must take Xi's words seriously as he sticks to his words in anti-corruption and zero-COVID policy. Xi's recent speeches indicated the willingness to use force to take over Taiwan. However, it is yet to know whether Xi will escalate US-China tensions to an uncontrollable level.