FP: 俄烏戰爭同時也曝露了中國的軍事弱點 

 

作者/Author(s): Tai Ming Cheung 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 10/24/2022 

關鍵字/Keywords: Military 

摘要:

外交政策和安全等領域的學者專家預測，中國可能會跟隨俄羅斯的腳步，加快入侵台灣。然而，俄羅斯在其行動中遭受了災難性失敗，這使得中國重新評估了解放軍的能力和弱點，進而延遲了他們原本要入侵台灣的計畫行動。俄羅斯軍隊的無能讓其付出很多，且損失慘重，卻還是未能達到目標。這一點提醒了中國，若其入侵台灣的計畫失敗，將要面對嚴重後果，甚至包含中國共產黨的政權衰亡。

 

中國擔憂的因素  

俄羅斯的失敗  

中國的擔憂  

烏克蘭使用美國等西方國家提供的武器裝備打敗了俄羅斯先進的武器和軍隊，甚至奪回了俄羅斯最初的戰果。  

中國的先進武器大多來自於俄羅斯的進口或是參考俄羅斯的技術加以開發，這引發了人們對於解放軍的武器能否擊敗西方系統的疑慮。  

烏克蘭軍隊擊敗了俄羅斯具有近幾十年在車臣、敘利亞和喬治亞等地參與戰鬥經驗的高素質軍隊，這揭露了俄羅斯指揮控制架構的嚴重缺陷  

解放軍的軍事學說是以蘇聯模型作為基礎發展起來的，但他們其實缺乏有經驗的軍官。  

俄羅斯軍隊未能在烏克蘭進行複雜的聯合作戰。  

如果中國決定入侵台灣，解放軍就必須有能力執行複雜的聯合作戰，他們不僅要因應台灣極具挑戰的地理環境和軍事防禦，同時也要對抗西方盟國的尖端防禦系統。雖然解放軍已經有多次入侵演習的經驗，但這並不大表他們有能力執行聯合作戰。除此之外，台灣、美國及其盟友隨時都在密切監視中國在台灣海峽周圍的軍事活動，此舉減少了中國出奇不意或發動閃電戰的機會。  
 

俄羅斯在冒險入侵烏克蘭後，開始變得脆弱、不具威懾力，甚至孤立無援。這樣深刻的教訓時刻在提醒中國要小心愚蠢的代價。然而，習近平仍在加快解放軍的現代化，透過仔細觀察台灣與西方世界的互動，習近平有更多的時間去制定並完善解放軍的統一戰略。
  
Summary:
Foreign policy and security experts anticipate that China may invade Taiwan soon, following in Russia’s footsteps. However, Russia suffered catastrophic failures in its campaign, which allowed China to reevaluate the PLA’s capabilities and weaknesses, thus delaying an imminent invasion. The incompetence of the Russian army in Ukraine resulted in heavy losses without achieving its objectives, forewarning China of the dire consequences, including the collapse of the CCP, if they failed in its conquest of Taiwan. 
 

Causes of concern for China 

Russia’s failures 

China’s concerns 

Ukraine outperformed Russia’s advanced weapons and troops and even wrestled Russia’s initial gains back using armaments provided by the US and other Western countries.  

China’s advanced weapons were imported from Russia or based on Russian technology. This throws doubt on whether the PLA’s weapons can overpower Western systems. 

The Ukrainian army defeated Russia’s highly experienced army, which saw battles in Chechnya, Syria, and Georgia in recent decades, exposing a deep flaw in Russia’s command-and-control structure. 

The CCP structured the PLA’s military doctrine based on the Soviet model, and it lacked experienced military officers. 

The Russian army failed to conduct complex joint operations in Ukraine. 

If China decides to invade Taiwan, the PLA must execute complex joint operations to meet Taiwan’s challenging geography and defense, fortified by advanced Western defense systems. Although the PLA conducted invasion drills, it does not imply the PLA can conduct joint operations (interoperability among different service branches). Further, Taiwan, the US, and its allies are closely monitoring China’s military movement around the Taiwan strait, depriving China of the element of surprise. 

Russia ended up fragile, unfeared, and isolated after its disastrous adventure in Ukraine, which cautions China on the dangers of folly gambling. However, Xi is hastening PLA’s modernization and has the time to refine its forced unification strategies after watching Taiwan going closer to the Western world. 
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