作者:Bernard Condon and the Associated Press
來源:Fortune
日期:May 19, 2023
 

成為首要還款國家

• 中國規定借款人將美元或其他外幣存入秘密託管帳戶，如果借款人停止還款，北京就可以扣押這些資金，此舉讓中國可以在其他國家不知情的狀況下，率先回收貸款。
• 非中國的貸款人和投資者在得知託管銀行和優先償還中國貸款的做法後感到非常震驚，也讓他們更不願意在債務條款問題上軟化或放寬標準。

換匯交易作為貸款

• 中國的央行以換匯交易的形式借出了數十億美元，進一步加劇了他國對中國的不信任。
• 換匯交易可以幫助國家暫時解決外匯儲備不足的問題，適合進行短期資金流動，但不能用於長期投資。
• 然而，中國的換匯交易類似貸款，年限長且利率高，而且它們不會出現在借款人的帳戶中。
• 雖然換匯交易可以暫時減輕債務違約風險，但也會為債務國累積更多債務，甚至可能加劇經濟崩潰。

一些發展中國家陷入了中國和非中國貸方之間的困境。中國不願意承擔損失，但如果這些國家向國際貨幣基金組織（IMF）借錢來償還中國利息，IMF也不會同意借款。只要債權人之間沒有達成共識，這些國家就不會得到任何救援方案，只能眼睜睜看著其經濟就會惡化。除非專家了解中國的貸款實務做法，否則危機將繼續下去。

Becoming the First in Repayment

• China mandated borrowers deposit US dollars or other foreign currency in secret escrow accounts that Beijing could seize if the borrowers stopped settling the loans. It allows China to get paid first without other lenders being aware.
• The existence of the escrow banks and prioritization of repaying Chinese loans shocked non-Chinese lenders and investors, making them more reluctant to forgive or soften the debts' terms.

Foreign Currency Swaps as Loans

• China's central bank loaned billion of dollars in the form of foreign currency exchanges, fueling further distrust in China.
• Currency swaps allow countries to temporarily mend foreign reserve shortages, allowing short-term capital liquidity but not for long-term investment.
• However, Chinese currency swaps are similar to loans, with long maturity years, high-interest rates, and they will not appear in the borrowers' accounts as loans.
• Although the currency swap can temporarily mitigate default, it also accumulates more debt and may worsen economic collapse.

Some developing countries are stuck between China and non-Chinese lenders. China is unwilling to take losses, while IMF will not help if the money they loan is to pay interest on Chinese loans. As long as the creditors do not reach a consensus, these countries will not receive any rescue packages, and their economies will worsen. The crisis will continue unless experts understand how China's lending practice works.