Fortune: 「午夜時鐘響起」:中國正在向巴基斯坦與肯亞等數十個國家徵收貸款。(Part 1)

作者:Bernard Condon and the Associated Press
日期:May 19, 2023





  • 雖然中國的貸款促進了尚比亞的國內經濟,但同時也提高了尚比亞政府對外國的利息支出,甚至政府因此無法拿出社會福利的預算。
  • 西方貸款人(美國、日本和法國)具有多邊減債機制,可以透過協商的方式使彼此的損失降至最低。然而,中國不願意參加談判,他們更傾向於單獨與尚比亞交易。同時,他們禁止尚比亞向其他貸款人公開其與中國的貸款條款,甚至迫使尚比亞優先償還債務給中國。
  • 由於中尚之間的交易缺乏透明度,非中國貸款人拒絕了尚比亞對於暫停還息的請求,這進一步消耗了尚比亞的外匯儲備,並最終違約
  • 因此,尚比亞經歷了高通膨、高失業率、貨幣貶值和食品安全危機。
  • 研究人員發現,尚比亞欠中國國有銀行的債務是他們預測的兩倍,大約是該國總債務的三分之一。


  • 由於中國不願承受巨大的損失,許多國家正在努力對中國的債務,這已經導致其國內經濟增長停滯。
  • 這些國家的外匯儲備消失得非常快,以支付基本商品,很快就會消失。
  • 當這些國家的外匯儲備耗盡時,他們的經濟就會收縮,出現高通貨膨脹,日常用品變得難以負擔。這可能會迫使人們陷入貧困。
  • 麗如巴基斯坦不得不購買打折的俄羅斯石油來維持電力運行,斯里蘭卡國內因為經濟動盪而發生了暴動。

Some countries heavily indebted to China face economic instability and a possible collapse due to their inability to repay loans. These countries are quickly draining up their foreign currency reserve to pay the interest and allocating more budget to repay the loans than other critical infrastructure. Not only is China unwilling to forgive the debts, but the method and terms it provides the loans are also classified. China even asked lenders to deposit the money in a hidden third-party account that allows China to obtain the money before other lenders. Debtor countries had defaulted on debt, laid off workers, and suffered hyperinflation. If China is reluctant to soften its stance on loan repayment, large waves of defaults and political turmoils could fuel long-term geopolitical instability.

Zambia's Case

  • Although the Chinese loans boosted Zambia's economy, they raised foreign interest payments, so the government could not spare cash for social welfare.
  • Western lenders (the U.S., Japan, and France) have multilateral debt-forgiving mechanisms that minimize each others' loss. However, China is unwilling to join the talks and prefers to deal with Zambia alone, banned Zambia from disclosing the loans' terms to non-Chinese lenders, and coerced Zambia into prioritizing loan repayment to China.
  • Due to the lack of transparency, non-Chinese lenders refused Zambia's plead to suspend interest repayment, which further drained Zambia's foreign reserves and eventually defaulted.
  • Consequently, Zambia experienced hyperinflation, high unemployment, currency devaluation, and a food security crisis.
  • Researchers uncovered Zambia's owed Chinese state-owned banks double what they predicted and around one-third of the country's total debt.

Same story in other countries

  • Many countries struggled to repay Chinese loans and had stunted economic growth due to China's unwillingness to take heavy losses.
  • Foreign reserves in these countries are draining fast to pay for essential goods and may deplete soon.
  • When these countries deplete their foreign reserves, their economy contracts, high inflation occurs, and daily goods become unaffordable. It may force people into poverty.
  • Pakistan had to buy discounted Russian oil to keep the electricity running, and Sri Lanka had riots due to the economic turmoil.