FP: 核恐嚇是俄羅斯實力下降的一個標誌

作者/Author(s): Austin Wright 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 04/04/2023 

主題/Key Topics : Nuclear, Military, Strategy


摘要:
普京要求停止《新削減戰略武器條約》（New  Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty，New START）一舉，破壞了全球的和平，也暴露了俄羅斯在國際秩序中的衰退。 
《新削減戰略武器條約》 
  • 該條約於2011年簽署，是美國和俄羅斯之間的一項核軍備控制協議。 
  • 該協議旨在限制已部署的進攻性戰略核彈頭的數量，並限制運載平台，以減少發生核戰爭的可能性。雙方通過年度檢查和資訊交流來實施，以驗證彼此是否有遵守條約。 
  • 美國遵守了該條約的條款，但俄羅斯試圖規避它以達到其政治目的。 
  • 俄羅斯部署了不受《新削減戰略武器條約》限制的低威力放射性武器，以威脅西方，並拒絕檢查。
  • 普丁中止《新削減戰略武器條約》意味著他對俄羅斯衰退的力量和影響力缺乏信心和悲觀。 
缺乏信心的俄羅斯 
  • 蘇聯在冷戰期間敢於與美國談判《戰略武器限制談判條約》（Strategic Arms Limitation Talks，SALT）和《反彈道飛彈條約》（Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty，ABM），是一個自信的超級大國。這些條約減少了核戰爭的威脅，同時在其他方面進行競爭，以確保一個更安全的世界。 
  • 儘管《戰略武器限制談判條約》要求蘇聯犧牲其部分核能力，但它也允許蘇聯與美國接觸。
  • 雖然雙方之間也爆發過一些代理人戰爭，但蘇聯和美國繼續進行有建設性的談判，以限制核武器的使用。 
  • 一個超級大國需要身兼數職，它必須能夠在與其他大國競爭的同時，找到減少核領域緊張局勢和風險的方法。 
  • 雖然蘇聯必須做出犧牲，但他們明白一個超級大國必須處理好與其他大國的關係，以提高其國際威望並實現其外交政策目標。 
  • 普丁中止《新削減戰略武器條約》並在白俄羅斯部署非戰略性核武器，增加了核戰爭的機會，使世界更加危險。但這也標誌著俄羅斯的實力在不斷下降。
 
Summary: 
Putin's demand to suspend the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) deteriorates global peace and exposes Russia's decline in the international order. 

The New START Agreement 
  • Signed in 2011, the treaty is a nuclear arms control agreement between the US and Russia. 
  • The agreement seeks to cap the number of deployed offensive strategic nuclear warheads and limit the delivery platform to reduce the possibility of a nuclear war. It is implemented through annual inspections and information exchanges to validate compliance with the treaty. 
  • The US complied with the treaty's terms, but Russia attempted to circumvent it to serve its political ends. 
  • Russia deployed low-yield radioactive weapons, not limited under New START, to threaten the West and refused inspections. 
  • Putin's suspension of the New START indicates his lack of confidence and pessimism about Russia's declining power and influence.  
Unconfident Russia 
  • The Soviet Union was a confident superpower when it dared to negotiate the Strategic Arms Limitation (SALT) and the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) treaty with the US during the Cold War. The treaties reduced the threat of nuclear war while competing in other aspects to ensure a safer world. 
  • Although the SALT treaty required the Soviet Union to sacrifice some of its nuclear capability, it also allowed it to engage with the US. 
  • Despite various proxy wars, the Soviet Union and the US continued with constructive negotiations to limit the use of nuclear weapons. 
  • A superpower needs to multitask, and it must be able to compete with its peer while finding ways to reduce tensions and risks in the nuclear realm. 
  • Although the Soviet Union must sacrifice, it understood a superpower must manage its relation with other powers to increase its international prestige and achieve its foreign policy aims. 
  • Putin's suspension of New START and deployment of nonstrategic nuclear weapons in Belarus increases the chances of nuclear war, making the world more dangerous. It also signified Russia's declining power. 
 
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