FP: 中國的一帶一路無處可去？ 

 

作者/Author(s): Christina Lu 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Policy  

日期/Date: 02/13/2023 

主題/Key Topics: Economic, BRI 

摘要：

隨著BRI進入第一個十年，這個習近平雄心勃勃的項目卻因為貸款的停滯和建設項目的停止而步履蹣跚。COVID-19大流行，中國國內經濟放緩，以及BRI受援國日益嚴重的債務危機，都使人們對BRI的未來產生了懷疑。 

  • BRI 的主要目標是出口中國的過剩工業，增加北京的外交影響力，並提高其全球影響力。然而，一些項目充滿可疑和爭議，引起了人們對北京貸款做法的懷疑和強烈反對。 
  • 許多國家發現他們的經濟結構無法承受中國貸款的條件，迫使一些國家停止對中國（斯里蘭卡）的基礎設施交易，圍繞一帶一路項目進行抗議（巴基斯坦），或重組與中國的債務（尚比亞）。 
  • 然而，中國需要為這種嚴峻的形勢承擔責任，因為中國企業在沒有考慮經濟可行性和風險的情況下不斷提高項目的數量。
  • 中國同意讓這些國家推遲償還債務，以減輕他們負債的負擔。然而，此舉反而使中國銀行和中國經濟處於危險之中。 
  • 儘管如此，BRI 在貸款選擇不多的國家中仍然很有名。 
  • 中國目前正在將BRI改造成全球發展倡議（GDI），這是一個定義模糊的項目，重點是與聯合國的教育、清潔能源和消除貧困的目標保持一致。中國還希望世界銀行和亞洲開發銀行能夠與GDI合作，這代表著一種多邊的發展方式，並使中國戰略多樣化。 
  • 然而，外國觀察家認為，GDI是中國政府為重塑失敗的BRI而做出的努力，習近平別有用心的動機並沒有改變。 
  • 以美國和歐盟為首的G7西方國家正式投入「全球基礎設施與投資夥伴關係」，以挑戰一帶一路的版圖，但目前其影響力還無法與一帶一路相提並論。 
 
Summary: 
As the BRI enters its first decade, Xi's ambitious project falters with lending stagnation and project halts. The COVID-19 pandemic, China's domestic economic slowdown, and mounting debt crises among BRI recipients contributed to doubts about BRI's future. 
 
  • BRI's primary goals are to export China's industrial excess, increase Beijing's diplomatic leverage, and improve its global influence. However, some projects were dubious and controversial, causing suspicion and backlashes against Beijing's lending practices.  
  • Many countries found out their economic structure could not endure the conditions of Chinese loans, forcing some countries to cease their infrastructure control to China (Sri Lanka), protests around projects (Pakistan), or restructure their debt with China (Zambia). 
  • Yet, China needs to take the blame for the dire situation because Chinese firms pushed for the number of projects without considering the economic feasibility and risks. 
  • China agreed to delay debt repayments to alleviate the burden of debt-laden countries. However, it put Chinese lenders and China's economy in danger. 
  • Nevertheless, BRI is still famous among countries with few lending options. 
  • China is currently revamping the BRI into Global Development Initiative (GDI), an obscurely defined program focused in line with UN goals on education, clean energy, and poverty eradication. China also hoped the World Bank and Asian Development Bank could cooperate with GDI, signaling a multilateral approach to development and diversifying its strategy. 
  • Yet, foreign observers suggest the GDI is Beijing's effort to rebrand the failed BRI without changing Xi's ulterior motives. 
  • Western countries led by the US and EU dedicated funds to Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment to challenge the BRI, but it is yet a match to China's BRI influence. 
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