第一部分：理論部分 

第二部分：俄羅斯 

第四部分：給全球的啟示 
 

Summary: 

This section discusses the logic of China’s belligerence in the current decade. China has high symmetrical economic dependence on the rest of the world. China imports raw materials to export manufactured goods, giving it the power to threaten trade partners with selective embargoes. However, economic interdependence presents some unknown short-term vulnerabilities. If China is punished severely like Russia, its economy will be ruined. This vulnerability is a deterrent to Beijing’s expansionism, especially in preventing a Taiwan invasion.

China may resort to aggressive maneuvers if it faces a gloomy economic future.  

• China depends highly on TSMC’s high-quality small dimensions semiconductor chips to manufacture high-end technological products for exports and military uses. 
• If the US restricts China’s access to the chips, it may invade Taiwan to obtain the chip-production factories. 

• The US can reassure China of continuous chip supplies from Taiwan if they stop their hostility. This gives China a positive economic outlook and reduces the possibility of a cross-strait crisis.  
• China may object to the proposal above because it exposes Beijing’s incompetence in the high-tech economy and military power.  
• However, China will realize that an invasion of Taiwan will lead to relentless economic sanctions, loss of trade relations, and the destruction of Taiwan’s chip-making facilities. Therefore, China has all the reasons to restrain its behavior.