RFE/RL：一帶一路貿易路線因為俄烏戰爭的影響而聚焦於新的歐亞路線


 

作者/Author(s): Reid Standish 

原文來源/Source: Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty 自由歐洲電台 

日期/Date: 07/18/2022 

主題/Key Topics : BRI, Eurasian Railway 

摘要:

 

一帶一路的主要目標之一是通過俄羅斯將中國商品運往歐洲，但西方因入侵烏克蘭而對俄羅斯實施制裁，這意味著中國需要尋找替代方案。中國的主要選擇是使用一帶一路的中間走廊，即跨裏海國際運輸路線 (Trans-Caspian International Transport Route Middle Corridor,     TITR)，該路線由橫跨哈薩克、裏海、亞塞拜然、喬治亞和土耳其的公路、鐵路和港口網路組成，成為進入歐洲的重要通道。儘管中國在這條走廊沿線的基礎設施上投入了大量資金，但由於對俄羅斯的相對劣勢，中國收到的貨物較少。在烏克蘭危機期間，通過 TITR 的貨運量增加了六倍，甚至吸引了著名的物流代理商使用 TITR。中國和 TITR 沿線政府樂見這一轉變，並討論了更深層次投資與合作的可能性。

轉向TITR：
  •  新亞歐大陸橋(NELB)曾被稱為「大陸供應鏈穩定提供商」。在COVID-19最嚴重的時期，這是貨物的主要運輸路線。 
  • 西方制裁禁止通過俄羅斯運輸貨物，間接為其他政府提供了填補空白的機會。 
  • 哈薩克計劃加大對裏海沿岸港口和鐵路基礎設施的投資。 
  • 為了增加運輸量，中國還著手簡化阿拉山口和霍爾果斯海關的手續。 

TITR的未來： 
  • TITR 的長期可行性受到人們的懷疑，特別是因為其更高的成本和由陸路和海路組成的複雜物流路線。 
  • 裏海和喬治亞靠近黑海的一側缺乏深水港等基礎設施，無法順暢運輸。
  • TITR 國家的政府在可能需要數年才能完成的基礎設施建設融資問題上面臨反對。 
  •  中國可能會選擇通過中亞使其陸路運輸路線多樣化。 
 
Summary: 
One of the main aim of BRI is to transport Chinese goods to Europe via Russia, but Western sanctions on Russia due to the invasion of Ukraine means China needs to look for alternatives. The primary option for China is to use the middle corridor of BRI, the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), which consists of a network of roads, rails, and ports across Kazakhstan, the Caspian Sea, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey before entering Europe. Although China invested heavily in infrastructure along this corridor, it received fewer shipments due to its comparative disadvantage against Russia. Amid the Ukrainian crisis, shipment across TITR increased sixfold and even attracted prominent logistic agents to use the TITR. China and governments along the TITR supported the shift and discussed the possibilities for deeper investments and cooperation. 

Shifting to TITR: 
  • The NELB was once dubbed the “continental supply chain stability provider.” It was the main transport route for goods when the COVID-19 pandemic started. 
  • The Western sanction prohibits the transportation of goods via Russia, indirectly providing other governments a chance to fill in the gap. 
  • Kazakhstan plans to invest more in ports along the Caspian Sea and railway infrastructure. 
  • As an incentive to increase transportation volume, China also moved in to streamline the procedures at the Alashankou and Khorgos customs. 

The future of TITR: 
  • The long-term viability of TITR is skeptical due to higher costs and complex logistic routes that consist of land and sea lines. 
  • The Caspian Sea and the Georgian side of the Black Sea lacked the infrastructure such as deep-water ports for smoother transit. 
  • Governments in TITR countries face opposition over the financing of infrastructure construction that may take years to complete.
  • China may opt to diversify its land shipment routes via Central Asia. 
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