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FA: 習近平對秩序的追求

 

作者/Author(s): Sheena Chestnut Grietens 

原文來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/03/2022 

主題/Key Topics : Grand Strategy 

摘要:

全球安全倡議 (The Global Security Initiative, GSI)旨在促進全球共同安全，這也是北京外交政策的顯著轉變。GSI雖然尚未成熟，但它試圖與美國及其安全聯盟競爭，使全球安全更符合中共的利益。

安全作為核心概念： 

  • 習近平部署了總體國家安全觀和新的黨中央國家安全委員會（CNSC），以處理任何可能威脅中共政權的國內安全問題。
  • 習的行為暴露了中共根基缺乏安全感。儘管西方分析人士和官員一直關注中國的崛起，但中共始終暗示存在未知威脅，而且他們目前的能力不足以應對。 
  • 對習近平和中共而言，通過消除政治和意識形態威脅及對軍隊和國內安全組織的控制，可以維護中共的統治。 

「維穩」到「防控」 :
  • 總體國家安全觀承認國內和外部威脅之間的長期關係，但專注於國內和非傳統威脅。 
  • 該概念也是官員評估和解決威脅的架構邏輯。此外，它賦予官員主動處理安全問題的權力，從「維護穩定」的原則轉變為「預防和控制」。 
  • 這一概念從根本上改變了中國的安全結構，表明中國國家安全政策和進程的標誌性變化。 
  • 通過大力投資現代監控技術以加強治理和維護社會秩序，中國正逐漸成為一個監控國家。 
  • 北京還嚴厲鎮壓新疆和香港，因為外國勢力很可能影響這些地區，威脅到中共的權威。 

在國外尋求安全感 
  • 如果習近平獲得第三個任期，他可能會將總體國家安全概念推向中國境外。
  • GSI的目標： 
  1. 中國外交指導原則是為北京的國家安全利益服務。 
  2. 改革以美國為首的國際安全結構，使其更具包容性並保護中國的利益。 
  3. 避免中國受到外國影響，以保護中國共產黨政權的合法性。 
  4. 加強安全合作，應對國內和非傳統威脅。 

引起美國擔憂 
  • 美國忽視了GSI對國際安全秩序及其安全利益構成的非軍事挑戰。 
  • 美國不斷批評那些尋求中國援助和技術以應對國內威脅的國家，但也沒有給予他們更具建設性的選擇。 
  • 美國決不能輕視中國對GSI和相關外交政策的使用，這些政策強化了中國共產黨的合法性，並根據北京的利益改革了國際安全秩序。 
 
Summary: 
The Global Security Initiative or GSI (全球安全倡議) aims to promote global common security and a notable shift in Beijing’s foreign policy. Although GSI has yet to mature, it seeks to compete with the US and its security alliances to make global security more suitable for the CCP’s interests. 

Security at the core: 
  • Xi deployed a comprehensive national security concept (總體國家安全觀) and a new party body, the Central National Security Commission (CNSC), to handle any domestic security issues that threatened the CCP regime. 
  • Xi’s actions expose the CCP’s fundamental insecurity. Despite Western analysts and officials hailing China’s rise, CCP consistently implied unknown threats were present, and their current capabilities were inadequate. 
  • For Xi and CCP, a comprehensive strategy can safeguard CCP’s rule by eliminating political and ideological threats and exerting control over the military and domestic security organizations. From “Stability Maintenance (維穩)” to “prevention and control (防、控)” 
  • The comprehensive national security concept acknowledges the longstanding relationship between domestic and external threats but fixates on domestic and non-traditional threats. 
  • The concept is also a systematic framework for officials to evaluate and resolve threats. Further, it gives officials the authority to handle security issues proactively, shifting from a principle of “stability maintenance” to “prevention and control.” 
  • The concept reformed China’s security structure from the foundation, indicating a symbolic change in China’s national security policies and processes. 
  • China is gradually becoming a surveillance state by investing heavily in modern surveillance technologies to enhance governance and preserve social order. 
  • Beijing also harshly repressed Xinjiang and Hong Kong since foreign ideologies most likely influenced these regions, which threatened the authority of the CCP. 
Seeking security abroad 
  • Xi will probably push the comprehensive national security concept outside China’s border if he secures a third term under GSI. 
  • The aims of GSI: 
  1. A guiding principle for China’s diplomacy serving Beijing’s national security interests. 
  2. Reform the US-led international security structure to be more inclusive and protect China. 
  3. Insulate China against foreign influence to protect CCP’s legitimacy. 
  4. Increase security cooperation to address domestic and non-traditional threats. 
Cause for concern for the US 
  • The US neglected the non-military challenges posed by GSI to the international security order and its security interests. 
  • The US constantly criticized the countries that sought China’s assistance and technology for addressing domestic threats but did not offer constructive options. 
  • The US must not belittle China’s use of GSI and related foreign policies that fortify CCP’s legitimacy and reform the international security order based on Beijing’s interests. ​​​​​​​
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