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The National Interest: 美國如何正確對待台灣
台灣對美國具有戰略意義，但它的重要性不應該被誇大，也不應該為民主理想辯護。 當前對台灣防禦的強硬立場激起了人民的情緒，以限制中國日益增長的實力，和提高美國與盟國之間的信譽。 在面對另一個核大國時應該要更謹慎，美國可以承諾保衛台灣，但應該把條件白紙黑紙約定好，不要被霸權主意或民主理想所挾持。
Taiwan is strategically significant to the US, but its importance should not be exaggerated or defended for democratic ideals. The current hawkish stance toward Taiwan's defense aroused emotions to constrict China's increasing power and to improve the US's credibility among its allies. The US can commit to defending Taiwan but should make its conditions clear and not be held hostage by hegemonic or democratic ideals, especially when dealing with another nuclear power.
作者/Author(s): Samuel Gardner-Bird
原文來源/Source: The National Interest
日期/Date: 04/20/2022
主題/Key Topics: Defense/Military
摘要：
美國不應該冒險為台灣問題與中國發生核戰爭，尤其是在雙方對台灣有著不同的信念和利益的情況下。北京了解入侵台灣的風險，其也判斷美國不會為台灣犧牲。儘管美國內部有大量立法者和民眾支持台灣，但美國人不願全面投入保衛台灣的戰爭；如果損失嚴重，更可能會引發美國國內對戰爭的抗議。 因此，美國必須鼓勵台灣付出一些成本並能夠有效自衛，同時將台灣保持在其利益範圍內。
- 美國需要推動有條件的對台軍售，向台灣出售更多適合不對稱防禦戰略的裝備，如反艦飛彈、水雷和無人機，以削弱解放軍的海空優勢。
- 把台灣變成「豪豬」可以拖延中國的入侵或避免既成事實，讓美國及其盟友有時間協調支持和制裁行動。
- 美國還可以提供人道主義和防禦物資，讓台灣有機會在中國的進攻中倖存下來。
台灣對美國具有戰略意義，但它的重要性不應該被誇大，也不應該為民主理想辯護。 當前對台灣防禦的強硬立場激起了人民的情緒，以限制中國日益增長的實力，和提高美國與盟國之間的信譽。 在面對另一個核大國時應該要更謹慎，美國可以承諾保衛台灣，但應該把條件白紙黑紙約定好，不要被霸權主意或民主理想所挾持。
Summary:
The US should not risk going into a nuclear war with China over Taiwan, especially with different beliefs and interests in Taiwan between them. Beijing understood the risks if it initiated an invasion of Taiwan and judged the US would not sacrifice itself for Taiwan. Despite the vast support from legislators and the public in the US, a reluctance in total commitment in a war to defend Taiwan was observed, which may spark protest over the war if heavy losses were incurred. Hence, the US must encourage Taiwan to shoulder the burden of self-defense while keeping Taiwan within its interest.
- The US needs to advance conditional arms sales to Taiwan, selling more equipment suitable for asymmetric defense strategy such as anti-ship missiles, mines, and drones to dampen PLA's air and naval superiority.
- Turning Taiwan into a "porcupine" can drag China's invasion or avoid a fait accompli, giving the US and its allies time to coordinate support and sanctions.
- The US can also provide humanitarian and defensive supplies to give Taiwan a chance to survive China's attack.
Taiwan is strategically significant to the US, but its importance should not be exaggerated or defended for democratic ideals. The current hawkish stance toward Taiwan's defense aroused emotions to constrict China's increasing power and to improve the US's credibility among its allies. The US can commit to defending Taiwan but should make its conditions clear and not be held hostage by hegemonic or democratic ideals, especially when dealing with another nuclear power.