作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 11/23/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、經濟、台灣 


摘要：
多數專家認為中國可以在不訴諸戰爭的情況下制服台灣，同時預作必要時採取軍事行動的準備。過去，北京的策略大多適得其反，不僅促使台北與華府關係更趨緊密，也讓台灣人更具備自我防衛的意願。然而，近期內部政治紛擾及美台關係的不穩，使北京成功控制台灣的可能性升高。
  • 台灣不僅是一個民主國家及半導體強權，更因其關鍵地理位置掌控主要航運通道，形成阻擋中國軍事擴張的戰略屏障。對北京而言，控制台灣是向太平洋投射力量的關鍵，也是消除美國與東亞制衡其野心的關鍵。
  • 中國採取實體軍事演習、網路攻擊、假訊息操作與外交孤立等手段。中國的「蟒蛇戰略」旨在逐步壓迫與孤立台灣，最終讓台灣自己屈服。與此同時，中國也持續擴充軍事力量，強化封鎖或入侵能力以備嚇阻失敗之需。
  • 美國歷來強化與台灣的防務關係，川普與拜登政府皆推動軍售並建立國際聯盟。然而川普對台灣商品加徵關稅、要求大幅增加軍事支出，再加上對美國是否會支持台灣的混亂訊號，已讓台北深感不安。 
  • 雖然台灣正努力改革並增加國防開支，但嚴重黨派分歧在威脅日益加劇的今日，反讓提升防禦態勢的舉措陷入複雜局面。 
  • 美台關係雖偶有危機，卻一直是區域和平的支柱。新的貿易與軍事協議正在推進，但其成效取決於台灣國內的政治妥協，以及華府是否願意將台灣置於優先地位，而非追求與北京和解。 
  • 若台灣無法提高國防預算，或美國在中國壓力下動搖，恐將導致雙邊不信任、嚇阻力下降，並助長北京打擊台灣士氣的戰略意圖。反之，若美台合作順利，台灣成功提高防務支出，則可鞏固同盟關係與區域力量平衡。 
 
Summary: 
Most experts believed China would subdue Taiwan without a war, while preparing for military options if required. Previously, Beijing's strategy was largely counterproductive, driving Taipei and Washington closer and emboldening the Taiwanese to protect themselves. Recently, however, domestic political altercations and shaky US-Taiwan relations raised the prospect of Beijing's subjugation of Taiwan. 
  • Taiwan isn’t just a democracy and semiconductor superpower—it is critically positioned, controlling access to major shipping routes and forming a strategic barrier to Chinese military expansion. For Beijing, controlling Taiwan is key to projecting power into the Pacific and removing US/East Asian checks on its ambitions.
  • China combines physical military drills, cyber operations, disinformation, and diplomatic isolation. Its “Anaconda strategy” aims to slowly squeeze Taiwan into capitulation. Simultaneously, China has built up its military, enhancing its capacity to blockade or invade should coercion fail. 
  • The US has historically strengthened its defense ties to Taiwan, with Trump and Biden both facilitating arms sales and building international coalitions. However, Trump’s new tariffs on Taiwan’s goods and demands for steep hikes in military spending—coupled with mixed signals over support—have rattled Taipei. 
  • Despite efforts to reform and boost defense spending, Taiwan faces deep partisan divisions, complicating moves toward higher defense readiness just as threats mount. 
  • US-Taiwan ties, though fraught with periodic crises, underpin peace in the region. Work is underway on new trade and arms deals, but much depends on political compromise within Taiwan and Washington’s willingness to prioritize Taiwan over rapprochement with Beijing. 
  • Failure to expand Taiwan’s defense budget or the US wavering under Chinese pressure could feed cycles of mistrust, undermine deterrence, and fulfill Beijing’s aim of demoralization. Conversely, successful cooperation and higher defense spending could reinforce the alliance and regional balance of power. 
 
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