作者/Author(s): Fareed Zakaria 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 11/21/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、外交、川普 


摘要：
川普最新的烏克蘭和平方案只是舊酒裝新瓶，逼迫基輔做出更多讓步，同時祈求普丁會滿意最終結果，但這一切最終也只是為川普的諾貝爾和平獎鋪路。這項提議出現的時間點對烏克蘭人而言可說是最糟糕的，現今俄方壓力不斷升級，恐將導致烏克蘭戰敗。
  • 俄羅斯部隊正在包圍波克羅夫斯克，這座對烏克蘭工業與交通極具戰略關鍵性的樞紐。俄軍兵力多於烏克蘭防守部隊，且已滲透進城內從內部破壞。一旦波克羅夫斯克陷落，將嚴重削弱烏軍東部戰線的後勤補給能力。 
  • 莫斯科的政治意志與驚人耐力讓他們獲得許多戰果。雖然俄羅斯每月陣亡的士兵數量超過徵冰的速度，但快速補充傷亡的能力讓他們能持續作戰。相較之下，烏克蘭無法招募足夠的戰鬥人力，而且大部分部隊已不具備作戰能力或已筋疲力竭。 
  • 軍事援助不足則是烏克蘭的另一大頭痛原因。美國與歐洲的武器與彈藥有的運送延宕，有的未能如期抵達，阻礙了烏克蘭在前線補給與深入打擊俄羅斯境內的能力。 
  • 基輔也面臨戰爭資金耗盡的困境。此外，歐盟未能就支援烏克蘭的措施達成共識，更因擔心莫斯科的反制而排除了動用被凍結的俄羅斯主權資產的可能性。
  • 多數報導指出，川普正依照普丁的要求，要求澤倫斯基讓出更多領土。烏克蘭人不會接受這些條件，而該國憲法也禁止在沒有公投的情況下改變國界。若普丁得逞，他可能進一步要求對烏克蘭實施政治控制，將烏克蘭變成跟白俄羅斯一樣的代理國。 
  • 俄羅斯之所以能維持這場戰爭，是因為他們相信美國與歐洲會因為內部分歧與功能失調，逐漸疲於應戰，此判斷看似成立。如果這項提案通過，將成為現代民主國家首次在談判桌上向侵略性的專制政權投降，而這與美國傳統的國家利益背道而馳。 
 
Summary: 
Trump's newest peace proposal for Ukraine is an old wine in a new bottle - pressuring Kyiv to accept additional compromises and praying that Putin will be content with the final result, with a final goal of a Nobel Peace Prize. The timing of the offer comes at the worst time for the Ukrainians, facing mounting pressure from Russia, which could possibly result in a defeat for Ukraine.  
  • Russian forces are encircling Pokrovsk, a strategically critical industrial and transportation hub for Ukraine. Russian forces outnumbered the Ukrainian defenders and had infiltrated the city to sabotage it from the inside. The fall of Pokrovsk will compromise the Ukrainian's logistics for most of their Eastern Front.
  • Moscow's political will and sheer endurance contributed much to its progress. Although Russia lost more troops than it could conscript every month, its ability to replace casualties fast enough enabled it to sustain the campaign. In contrast, Ukrainian forces could not recruit enough combatants to fight. Moreover, most of its armies are unfit to fight or exhausted. 
  • The lack of military aid is another headache for the Ukrainians. Weapons and ammunition delivery from the US and Europe have stalled or are unfulfilled on time. These troubles impeded Ukraine's ability to supply its frontlines or strike deep into Russian territory. 
  • Kyiv is also running out of money to finance the war. Furthermore, the EU could not agree on a measure to support Ukraine and excluded using frozen Russian sovereign assets due to fear of repercussions from Moscow. 
  • Most reports suggest Trump is asking Zelensky to concede additional territory, per Putin's request. Ukrainians won't accept these terms, and the country's constitution bans territory boundary changes without a referendum. If Putin gets his wishes, he may demand more political control over Ukraine and turn it into a proxy like Belarus. 
  • Russia sustained the war based on the belief that the US and Europe would be exhausted from the war, which is seemingly true due to their internal disagreements and dysfunctions. If the proposal goes through, it will mark the first negotiated surrender of a modern democracy to an aggressive autocracy, which departs from conventional US national interests. 
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