作者/Author(s): Samuel Charap and Jeremy Shapiro 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 10/07/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 安全、烏克蘭、再保證部隊 


摘要：
烏克蘭與俄羅斯間的衝突斷斷續續持續了十幾年，2022年起更演變成全面衝突。因此基輔當局早已對莫斯科失去信心，不相信俄羅斯會遵守任何停火協議。烏克蘭人希望在同意任何和平協議前，能先從合作夥伴那獲得可信的安全保證，以防俄羅斯再次發動攻擊。雖然北約無法立即授予烏克蘭會員資格或「類北約第五條款」（Article 5-like），但成員國可建立緊急回擊機制，並納入立法體系中，建立一套在俄羅斯再次攻擊時自動啟動的應變系統。

信任與輕信 
  • 自2022年以來，北約成員國持續支援烏克蘭抵抗俄羅斯入侵，但他們也不讓烏克蘭入會，並限制烏國只能使用部分北約武器，顯示他們仍擔心衝突升級的風險。 
  • 部分歐洲國家主張，在烏俄達成停火後，應部署「再保證部隊」（reassurance force）。但只要歐洲拒絕直接介入俄烏衝突，此舉仍顯不足。 
  • 雖然美歐可能尚未準備好直接為烏克蘭出兵，但已準備對俄羅斯實施制裁，並向烏克蘭提供軍事、財政及情報支援。他們必須堅定地向烏克蘭保證，只要俄羅斯再度挑釁，他們將快速且大幅加強支援力度。 
  • 制裁是最有力的手段。即使西方在與莫斯科談判時暫時解除部分制裁，也應明確警告：若俄羅斯再次侵略烏克蘭，將立即面臨新一輪嚴厲且全面的制裁。 
  • 西方必須在停火協議後提供烏克蘭更強大的防禦武器，建立不對稱防禦體系，持續共享情報。若俄方違反停火協議，西方應確保持續向烏克蘭供應進攻性武器，並允許烏方打擊俄羅斯境內的軍事目標。 
  • 財政援助亦是可信安全保障的重要基石。G7集團應建立烏克蘭穩定基金（stabilization fund），加強援助與支持烏 國重建。此外，G7集團的基金也應提供實質性財政援助並支持軍事生產，讓烏克蘭能夠在必要時持續抵抗，直至取得長期安全與穩定。 
 
Summary: 
Ukraine's conflict with Russia lasted on and off for more than one decade, with a full-blown conflict since 2022. Consequently, Kyiv will not have confidence in Moscow's commitment to adhere to any ceasefire. Ukrainians would want credible security assurances from their partners to prevent another Russian attack before agreeing to any peace deals. Although NATO may not be able to grant membership or a provision akin to Article 5 for Ukraine, its members could establish snapback measures, formalize them into legislation, and develop systems that would activate in the event of another Russian attack. 

Credibility and Credulity 
  • NATO members have supported Ukraine against the Russian invasion since 2022, but have decided not to grant it membership or allow full use of their weapons, acknowledging the risks of escalating the conflict.
  • Some European countries touted the deployment of a "reassurance force" after Ukraine and Russia agreed on a ceasefire. However, it is insufficient as long as Europe refuses to intervene directly in a Ukraine-Russian conflict. 
  • While the US and Europe may not be ready to intervene for Ukraine directly, they are prepared to enact sanctions against Russia and provide Ukraine with military aid, financial assistance, and intelligence support. They must firmly reassure Ukraine that they will greatly amplify their support in the face of any future Russian aggression. 
  • Sanctions are the most potent instrument. Even if the West decides to lift sanctions during negotiations with Moscow, it should caution Russia about facing another swift and severe round of sanctions for any future acts of aggression. 
  • The West must also provide Ukraine with more capable defensive weapons to develop asymmetric defenses and continue sharing intelligence, applicable upon Russia's agreement to a ceasefire. If Russia violates the truce, it should ensure continuous offensive weapon supplies to Ukraine and allow Ukraine to hit military targets in Russia. 
  • Financial assistance is also a pillar of a credible security guarantee. The G-7 nations should establish a stabilization fund for Ukraine to enhance assistance and support its rebuilding efforts. This fund would also offer substantial financial assistance and support military production, enabling Ukraine to sustain its resistance for as long as necessary. 
 
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