作者/Author(s): Joel Wuthnow 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 09/12/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、兩岸關係、台海 
 

摘要：
兩岸日漸緊張的關係引發了外界對戰爭的擔憂。多數專家推測，台海危機可能來自兩種不同的戰爭形態：一種是「選擇性戰爭」， 北京認為還可承受一定的風險與代價時，會以武力吞併台灣；或「必要性戰爭」──北京認為台灣已跨越政治紅線，已經沒有政治統一的可能性。還有第三種「偶發性戰爭」存在，也就是兩岸雙方因意外或誤判引發失控衝突。當兩岸軍力近距離對峙、雙方政治立場強硬、美國可能會為了台灣介入時，此類戰爭風險將大幅上升。這三種戰爭特行各有不同，惟嚇阻手段無法阻止「偶發性戰爭」，唯有各方謹慎決策、外交得當及軍事克制方能遏止戰爭爆發。

歷史意外 
  • 台海軍事事故恐比預期更容易發生，一旦挑釁行為引發雙方報復，衝突便可能迅速升級。若雙方將對方舉動解讀成侵略訊號且不願退讓，摩擦極易演變為全面衝突。倘若美國為區域大規模衝突調動兵力，將迫使中國加強自身動員力度，局勢更進一步惡化。 
  • 自伯羅奔尼撒戰爭以來，重大「偶發性戰爭」屢見不鮮。更甚者，第一次世界大戰、美國獨立戰爭及第二次鴉片戰爭，皆因小事件引發連鎖報復而迅速升級為大規模戰爭。 
  • 三項會加劇「偶發性戰爭」風險的關鍵因素： 
  1. ​​​​​​​近距離頻繁接觸的敵方軍隊。 
  2. 內部政治動態，尤其是彼此的政治聲望、價值觀、聲譽等心理因素，反而導致雙方很難各退一步或情勢降溫。 
  3. 盟友為維護承諾可信度而動員軍力，反而會導致局勢惡化。
 
Summary: 
Tense China-Taiwan relations raised concerns about the possibility of an inevitable war. Most experts presume that a war of choice, where Beijing would annex Taiwan by force after perceiving the risks and costs as bearable, or a war of necessity, where Beijing feels Taiwan has crossed its political red line and sealed any chances of political unification, are the possible factors of a Taiwan Strait crisis. However, a third possibility—a war of chance: an uncontrollable war that occurs due to accidents or miscalculations—is also likely when the Chinese and Taiwanese militaries operate in proximity, political sentiments from both sides make backing off impossible, and the possibility of US intervention on behalf of Taiwan exists. Unlike the war of choice and necessity, deterrence cannot prevent a war of chance; however, careful decision-making, competent diplomacy, and military restraint on all sides can stop it. 

Accidents of History 
  • Military accidents in the Taiwan Strait can occur more easily than anticipated, prompting retaliation from both sides if provoked. A clash could easily escalate into a conflict if both sides interpret the other's move as a sign of aggression and are unwilling to back down. The dispute will further escalate if the US mobilizes its forces for a larger conflict in the region, prompting China to increase its own mobilization in response. 
  • Major wars of chance had occurred since the Peloponnesian War. Furthermore, the First World War, the Revolutionary War in the US, and the Second Opium War occurred due to retributive responses to minor events that escalated quickly into wider conflicts. 
  • Three main factors increase the risks of war of chance: 
  1. ​​​​​​​​​​​​​​Frequent contact between opposing militaries. 
  2. Internal political dynamics, especially intangible values such as prestige, honor, and reputation, impede de-escalation efforts. 
  3. Mobilization by allied nations, concerned about the credibility of their commitments, would exacerbate the situation. 
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