作者/Author(s): Joshua Freedman 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy Research Institute 

日期/Date: 07/11/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、國際政治、川普、關稅、台灣 

 

安全層面：籌碼減少 

 
  • 美中關稅戰升級可能會破壞台灣的長期安全。穩定的貿易關係一直是美中兩國外交的重要基石，也是防止台海發生衝突的嚇阻力量。 
  • 美國對中國擁有巨大經濟影響力。如果中國無視美國的立場，決心入侵台灣，恐將面臨比美國更大的經濟壓力，因為中國是一個高度依賴出口的經濟體，比美國更依賴全球供應鏈。 
  • 川普明確指出，關稅是一種對中國的經濟嚇阻工具。他更揚言如果中國入侵台灣，美國將對中製產品課徵極高關稅，甚至可能完全停止與中國的貿易往來。川普認為，美中經濟脫鉤將大幅削弱解放軍執行台海侵略行動的能力。 
  • 北京方面知道自己的經濟困境。在內外壓力之下，他們正推動西方投資中國高科技產業，優先實現經濟成長並穩定國內局勢。 
  • 若美國試圖透過關稅與中國脫鉤，將失去嚇阻中國侵台的能力，導致台灣更加危險。 
政治層面： 更不信任美國 
  • 川普的關稅政策削弱了台灣民眾對美台長遠關係的信心。雖然台灣人對中國的信任本就有限，但他們對美國的疑慮也在升高。 
  • 美國人認為他們對俄烏危機的處理，是西方決心和聲援民主的表現。但是美國並未派兵，僅以軍援與經濟制裁支援烏克蘭，導致愈來愈多台灣人認為，美國在危機時刻可能不會出兵協防台灣。 
  • 川普的關稅進一步加劇台灣人對美國的不信任： 
  1. 台灣人擔心台積電製造業遷往美國，會侵蝕台灣的「矽盾」和美國保護台灣的意願。 
  2. 川普一方面讚揚台積電在美國的投資，另一方面卻對台灣產品課徵高額關稅，反而更加深台灣人對美國的負面觀感。 
川普的關稅政策雖非台灣當前經濟與安全困境的起點，卻將台灣進一步推向更危險的境地。 
 
Summary: 
Security Implications: Less Leverage 
  • The escalation of the U.S.-China tariff war could undermine Taiwan's long-term security. A stable trade relationship between the U.S. and China has been a cornerstone of their diplomatic relations and a deterrent against any conflict in the Taiwan Strait. 
  • The U.S. holds considerable economic leverage over China. If China acts against the U.S.'s wishes and invades Taiwan, China could face larger economic pressure than the U.S. because it is a highly export-reliant economy and depends on the global supply chain more than the U.S. 
  • Trump explicitly acknowledges that tariffs serve as an economic deterrent against China. If China invades Taiwan, Trump threatened to impose monumental tariffs on Chinese products or even refuse to trade with China. Trump also assumes a U.S. economic decoupling from China will be a substantial hindrance to the PLA's aggression in the Taiwan Strait. 
  • The Beijing government understood its economic predicaments. Faced with internal and external pressures, it is promoting Western foreign investment in its high-tech sectors to prioritize economic growth and stabilize its economy. 
  • If the U.S. attempts to decouple from China using tariffs, it will lose its ability to deter Chinese aggression in the Taiwan Strait and put Taiwan in a more precarious position. 
Political Shifts: Increasing Mistrust in the U.S. 
  • Trump's tariffs had eroded Taiwanese citizens' confidence in their long-term relations with the U.S. Although the Taiwanese are skeptical about China's trustworthiness, they are also increasingly distrustful of the U.S. 
  • Americans view their response in the Ukrainian crisis as a sign of Western resolve and solidarity with democratic principles. However, since the U.S. had not deployed troops and relied only on arms transfers and economic sanctions to assist Ukraine, more Taiwanese believe the U.S. will not defend them in times of crisis. 
  • Trump's tariffs further exacerbated Taiwanese mistrust of the U.S.: 
  1. Taiwanese are concerned that moving TSMC's manufacturing to the U.S. would erode Taiwan's silicon shield and the U.S.'s willingness to protect Taiwan. 
  2. Trump's praise of TSMC's investment in the U.S., followed by the imposition of sky-high tariffs on Taiwan, further paints a negative perception of the U.S. 
Trump's tariff is not the starting point of Taiwan's economic and security predicament, but it has pushed Taiwan further into the danger zone.  
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