作者/Author(s): Joshua Freedman 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy Research Institute 

日期/Date: 07/11/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、國際政治、川普、關稅、台灣 

摘要：

川普的關稅戰在4月震驚整個東亞，甚至威脅要對台灣商品徵收 32% 關稅。最終除了中國外，其他國家的對等關稅措施都暫緩90天，台灣與各國獲得一線生機，持續針對新的關稅協議進行談判。如今期限已至，若美國決定重啟關稅戰，恐衝擊全球經濟。雖然台灣尚具優勢，但仍面臨經濟不確定性，可能加劇台灣民眾對美國的不信任，甚至動搖印太地區的國家安全。

喜憂參半的經濟影響 

  • 關稅對台灣經濟的影響好壞參半。台灣半導體產業獨步全球，加上其他利基產品，比其他國家更具比較利益。 
  • 但台灣仍是出口導向型經濟體。近年台灣出口市場已逐步從中國轉向美國，自2024年以來，美國成為台灣最大出口市場。美國不太可能對其高度依賴的晶片產業加徵關稅，但台灣其他產業仍易受關稅風險影響。
  • 台灣一直致力於將生產鏈從中國轉移至其他低成本地區。然而川普變幻莫測的關稅戰，讓台商很難有效評估遷移製造基地的效益，因為他們不確定美國計劃對其他國家徵收關稅的程度。 
  • 部分台商已開始承受關稅的衝擊。 
  1. 台灣企業在緊固件等傳統利基產品領域，早已面臨其他國家激烈競爭。由於生意變少，這些企業不得不關閉生產線以降低成本。
  2. 此外，關稅也導致新台幣兌美元升值，進一步削弱台灣出口產品的競爭力。 
 
Summary: 
Trump's tariff war shocked East Asian markets, even threatening to impose a 32% tariff on Taiwanese goods. However, Trump gave a 90-day pause on his tariff threat, except against China, giving Taiwan and other countries a chance to negotiate new tariff deals. As the deadline approaches, global economic turmoil may ensue if the U.S. resumes its tariff war. Although Taiwan has an ace in its sleeve, it still faces economic uncertainty, which will likely increase Taiwanese public mistrust of the U.S. and potentially shake its national security in the Indo-Pacific region. 

Mixed Economic Implications 
  • The tariffs will have mixed repercussions on the Taiwanese economy. Taiwan's prized and unrivaled semiconductor industry, along with its other niche products, gave it a comparative advantage over other countries.  
  • However, Taiwan is still an export-oriented economy. Taiwan had shifted its exports away from China towards the United States for a few years, making the U.S. the top Taiwanese export market since 2024. The U.S. is unlikely to target the chip industry or the businesses on which it heavily depends; however, Taiwan's other sectors remain vulnerable to tariffs. 
  • Taiwan had been diversifying its production chain away from China to other lower-cost locations. However, Trump's unpredictable tariff war has impeded Taiwanese businesses' efforts to relocate their manufacturing base, as they are uncertain about the tariff level that the U.S. plans to impose on other countries. 
  • Some Taiwanese businesses had started to bear the brunt of the tariffs. 
  1. Taiwanese businesses face intense competition from other countries in certain traditional niche products, such as fasteners. Since they are losing businesses, they have to shut down their production lines to cut costs. 
  2. Moreover, the tariffs caused the New Taiwan Dollar to appreciate against the U.S. dollar, which reduces the competitiveness of Taiwanese exports. 
 
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