作者/Author(s): Hal Brands 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 07/02/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、伊朗、美國


摘要：
美國對伊朗核設施的空襲展示了美國無可匹敵的軍事實力，然而這也暴露了美軍的弱點和侷限性。
  • 關於美軍最近的弱點和限制有兩種說法： 
  1. 有人認為，任何在其他地區的軍事介入都會拖慢美國對即將與中國開戰的軍事準備。 
  2. 另一種則指出，美國在西太平洋以外仍有重要戰略利益，作為全球霸權，不能放棄中東與東歐等關鍵區域。 
  • 雖然川普自詡為和平使者，但自他上任以來，美國已捲入兩場中東戰爭。這些軍事介入與「讓美國再次偉大」（MAGA）運動對中東干預的懷疑立場背道而馳，但也反映出美國在中東地區具有深厚利益。 
  • 如同前任總統一樣，川普將在中東陷入泥淖，不僅消耗美軍的戰力，也將面臨實質代價。 
  • 與此同時，美國國防部長亦宣稱中國入侵臺灣的行動可能迫在眉睫。中共解放軍定期進行複雜且具侵略性的軍演，可能正是封鎖或入侵行動的前奏。北京亦透過展示武力，不斷對日本、菲律賓與澳洲施加壓力。此外，中共持續擴張傳統與核武能力，更印證了此一說法。 
  • 美國此次對伊朗的軍事行動或可對北京產生嚇阻效果，然而真正的嚇阻力取決於實質軍力，而美國這項能力正在衰退。 
  • 美國必須意識到，他們無法不涉入印太以外的其他區域，且現有的軍力已不足以應對日益衝突的國際局勢。 
  • 為解決現今的弱點，美國必須持續提升國防預算，擴充武器與彈藥儲備、重振國防工業基地，並縮小承諾與能力間的差距。雖然參議院已通過增加國防支出，但未來是否會有進一步的行動仍有待觀察。 
 
Summary: 
U.S. airstrike on Iran's nuclear facilities is a demonstration that no one can match the U.S. military prowess. However, it also exposed the weaknesses and limits of the U.S. military. 
  • There are two narratives on recent U.S. military weaknesses and limits: 
  1. Any intervention elsewhere will slow down the U.S. military preparation against an imminent war with China. 
  2. The U.S. had other vital interests outside the Western Pacific, and a hegemon cannot abandon crucial regions like the Middle East and Eastern Europe. 
  • Although Trump brands himself a peacemaker, he has managed to get the U.S. in two Middle Eastern wars since his inauguration. The interventions contradict MAGA's skepticism of Middle Eastern operations, but they signify the U.S.'s vested interest in the region.  
  • Like his predecessors, Trump will be bogged down in the Middle East, consuming the U.S.'s military capabilities and imposing actual costs. 
  • Simultaneously, the U.S. Secretary of Defense also declared a Chinese invasion of Taiwan could be imminent. Chinese regular, complex, and aggressive military drills could be a prelude for blockade or invasion operations. Furthermore, Beijing is increasing pressure on Japan, the Philippines, and Australia through a show of force. China's conventional and nuclear capabilities buildup reinforces the claim further.  
  • U.S.'s demonstration of its military power in Iran may deter Beijing. However, real deterrence requires capabilities, which is declining for the U.S. 
  • The U.S. must realize that it cannot stop engaging outside the Pacific and does not have sufficient military power for a conflict-prone world. 
  • To address its weaknesses, the U.S. must sustain defense spending increases to increase its weapons and ammunition stockpile, reinvigorate defense industrial bases, and narrow the commitments-to-capabilities gap. Although the Senate passed defense spending increases, it remains uncertain whether they will permit future increases. 
 
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