作者/Author(s): Jacob Stokes, Kareen Hart, Ryan Claffey, and Thomas Corel 

網站來源/Source: Center for a New American Security 

日期/Date: 05/21/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 地緣政治、台海危機、區域安全 


摘要：
台海危機可能重塑印太地區甚至是全球的安全環境。過去大部分的相關報告多聚焦於美國或台灣如何回應中國的侵略行為，較少關注其他利害關係國的反應。此報告則著重探討利害關係國的地緣政治利益、價值觀及實力如何影響他們對台海危機的反應。 

塑造政策反應的結構性因素 
  • 台海危機的具體性質 
  1. 中國對台行動的類型與強度，將決定其他國家以外交手段、經濟制裁，或與美台並肩作戰等方式回應。各國與衝突區域的地理距離，也會影響其決策。 
  • 全球貿易與科技格局 
  1. 各國與中國、美國及台灣之間在經濟與科技上的互賴關係，也會影響其政策傾向。
  2. 各國在做出決策前，將評估互賴的程度、貿易中斷的影響、對半導體生產的主導權，以及遭受經濟報復的可能性。 
  • 台灣與美國的能力與反應 
  1. 各國將評估台灣的自衛能力、面對侵略的決心，以及政府的韌性。 
  2. 美國對台防衛的承諾，以及美台與中國之間的整體軍事實力對比，也將影響各國的回應。 
  • 干預行動的範圍 
  1. 各國有許多干預的手段，但是採用哪些手段，仍取決於該國的實力與政治意願。 
  2. 大多數政府會優先考慮本國公民的安全，避免捲入衝突。各國的經濟體系與資源，將決定其實施經濟國策的能力。 
  3. 即使各國有能力介入台海危機，也不一定有政治意願介入。政府在介入前會考慮人道主義成本和對軍事資產、經濟和外交聲譽的損害。  
 
Summary: 
A Taiwan Strait crisis may shape the Indo-Pacific or international security environment. Various reports focused on the U.S.'s or Taiwan's responses to Chinese aggression, but the reactions of other stakeholders gained less focus. This report examines how stakeholders' geopolitical interests, values, and material power may shape their responses to a Taiwan contingency. 

Structural Factors Shaping Policy Responses 
  • Specific nature of the Taiwan Contingency 
  1. The type and intensity of the Chinese attack on Taiwan will determine whether governments should respond using diplomacy, economic coercion, or joining the U.S. and Taiwan in liberating the island. The government's geographical proximity to the conflict area will also influence its choices. 
  • Global Trade and Technology Landscape 
  1. Economic and technological interdependence with China, the U.S., and Taiwan will shape government preferences. 
  2. Before deciding on their options, stakeholders will evaluate the degree of interdependence, the implications of trade disruption, the dominance over semiconductor production, and the possibility of economic retaliation. 
  • Taiwan and U.S. Capabilities and Responses 
  1. Governments will evaluate the Taiwanese self-defense capabilities, determination in the face of invasion, and the resilience of the Taiwanese government. 
  2. The U.S.'s commitment to Taiwan's defense, along with the U.S. and Taiwan's overall relative military balance with China, will also shape government responses. 
  • Spectrum of Intervention Options 
  1. Governments face a long spectrum of intervention options, depending on their capabilities and political will. 
  2. Most governments prioritize their citizens' safety and avoid being embroiled in the conflict. Their resources and economic networks will determine their ability to conduct economic statecraft. 
  3. Even if countries have the ability, they need the political will to use it. Governments will consider the humanitarian costs and damages to military assets, the economy, and diplomatic reputation before intervening. 
 
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