作者/Author(s): Kurt M. Campbell and Rush Doshi 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 4/10/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 外交、中國、美國 

 

整合各成員的優勢 

  • 拜登政府與美國的安全聯盟與夥伴體系進行協調，透過新型安全體系，以加強兵力投射能力，敦促盟國增加國防支出。應以此為基礎，進一步推動聯合生產、創新分享與供應鏈整合。 
  • 這也意味著規模擴大需要「雙向流動」，美國與其盟友必須共同合作，將自身優勢最大化、相互轉移產能，並分擔更多責任。 
  • 然而，官僚體系與政治考量等障礙經常阻礙聯盟整合能力的過程。 
  • 美國決心與中國競爭經濟和科技領域的決定十分重大，但仍須加倍努力應對中國產能過剩的問題，積極鞏固美國的科技領導地位。 
  • 由於世界貿易組織無法有效規範中國的非市場行為和龐大規模，美國可以考慮建立一個受保護的共同市場，負責協調法規，整合產業政策工具，給予夥伴市場更多優惠待遇。 
  • 美國與盟友也可共同建立一套集體經濟防衛體系，以遏制中國的經濟脅迫與軍事侵略行為。 

 

退出還是忠誠？ 

  • 大國經常高估自己對他國的影響力。川普自就任以來，已經多次讓美國的夥伴陷入兩難境地，甚至直接威脅盟國。這種行為正逐步侵蝕數十年來美國辛苦建立的外交信任，盟友也未必願意修補。 
  • 此外，不少美國的重要盟友正逐漸與華府保持距離，甚至考慮在經濟與安全風險之下，向中國靠攏。美國可能會導致自由國際秩序分裂，也失去了最佳的「規模化」路徑。 
  • 與此同時，中國也積極攜手伊朗、北韓和俄羅斯，共同建立反西方聯盟。他們幫忙推動彼此的國家利益，削弱美國利益。面對迫切威脅，美國亟需一個統一且協調的集體回應。 
  • 美國曾提出以拉攏俄羅斯的方式來破壞中俄聯盟，但此舉引發歐洲盟友的強烈反彈，並讓中國得以扮演合理夥伴的角色。 
  • 若美國未能與理念相近的夥伴擴大合作規模，並持續奉行孤立主義，它將失去全球影響力與領導地位。 
 
Integrating the Strengths of Each Member 
  • The Biden administration coordinated U.S. security alliances and partnerships networks and initiated new security arrangements to improve force projection and increase allies' defense spending. The current administration should build on these initiatives to enhance joint production, share innovation, and integrate supply chains. 
  • This also means the scale demands two-way flows, where the U.S. and its allies must contribute and cooperate by maximizing their advantages, transferring their capacity to one another, and shouldering more burden. 
  • However, bureaucratic and political barriers usually impede the progress of this allied capability. 
  • The U.S. took significant measures to compete with China economically and technologically. However, the U.S. must do more to address China's excess capacity and retain technological leadership. 
  • Since the WTO could not regulate China's nonmarket practices and gargantuan scale, the U.S. can build a protected common market with coordinated regulations, integrate industrial policy instruments, and give more preferential treatment to partner markets. 
  • The U.S. and its allies could also create a collective framework for economic defense to deter Chinese economic coercion and military aggression. 
Exit or Loyalty? 
  • Great powers often overrate their influence over others. Since his inauguration, Trump has repeatedly put U.S. partners in a dilemma or directly threatened them. This behavior will erode decades of diplomatic trust in the U.S., which allies will be reluctant to mend. 
  • Furthermore, some important U.S. allies are distancing themselves from Washington and are even considering moving closer to China despite the dangers to their economies and security. The U.S. may fracture the liberal international order and sever its best path to scale. 
  • The U.S. flouted the idea of rupturing Russia-China ties by alluring Russia. However, it will incite outcry from the U.S.'s European allies and allow China to assume the role of a reasonable partner. 
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