作者/Author(s): Jude Blanchette and Gerard DiPippo 

網站來源/Source: RAND Corporation 

日期/Date: 03/26/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、外交、台灣、川普 


摘要：
台灣政府的焦慮是有原因的。北京正透過灰色地帶行動加強施壓，例如海空入侵台灣的防空識別區（ADIZ），以及切斷台灣的海底通訊電纜。另一方面，川普對台灣的負面看法，以及美國可能對台灣半導體徵收關稅，動搖了台北與美國的關係。面對快速變化的地緣政治局勢，台灣必須迅速適應新的現實，重新思考其對美國的安全依賴。台灣已經提高國防支出，並嘗試解決對美國半導體產業貿易失衡的問題，以安撫川普政府。然而，這些措施夠嗎？ 
  • 台灣正在積極提高韌性與防衛能力。雖然這些努力都還不夠成熟，但政府已建立制度架構來解決眼前的各項挑戰。
  • 美國批評台灣的國防支出不足。台灣總統承諾將台灣的國防支出從目前佔 GDP 的 2.45% 增加到 3% 以上。然而，川普政府仍認為這不足以因應台灣所面臨的威脅。 
  • 台灣的防衛預算佔政府支出的比例逐年增加，這是正確的。然而，由於台灣政府整體預算不多，與中國和其他東亞國家相比，增幅微不足道。 
  • 台灣在對美貿易順差排名第五，達到 770 億美元。為了提升自身國防韌性並縮小貿易順差，台灣可能會向美國採購更多的國防或戰略物資。然而，由於台積電在半導體業的優勢地位，以及美國對先進晶片的大量需求，台灣恐怕很難實質上減少貿易逆差。 
  • 台積電已經開始在美國生產先進晶片，並承諾將擴大在美投資，但此舉不受台灣民眾歡迎。雖然台積電可能逃過川普的關稅，或至少減少衝擊，但其他的台灣半導體公司仍可能面臨關稅。 
  • 台灣也面臨其他挑戰：  
  1. 台灣與美國沒有正式外交關係，這限制了政府間的互動。 
  2. 隨著台灣向美國靠攏，可能會面臨來自中國的進一步報復。 
  3. 若川普政府決定與中國展開談判，台灣可能會淪為美國的談判籌碼。 
  4. 川普對澤倫斯基的惡劣態度，以及對普丁的示好，也讓台灣政府感到擔憂。 
  • 在這些困境下，台灣必須更自主自立，積極提升國家韌性與防禦能力。同時，政府也必須設法處理國內政治因素造成的障礙，以順利推動國防政策。 
Summary: 
The Taiwanese government is feeling anxious for good reasons. Beijing is ramping up its pressure campaign through gray zone operations such as air and sea incursions at Taiwan's ADIZ and cutting Taiwan's undersea telecommunication cables. On the other hand, Trump's negative opinions about Taiwan and the possibility of US tariffs on Taiwan's semiconductors have shaken Taipei's relations with the US. Given the changing geopolitical dynamics, Taiwan must soon adapt to the new realities and reconsider its security dependence on the US. Taiwan already increased its defense spending and is trying to address trade imbalance issues with the US semiconductor industry to appease the Trump administration. However, are these steps enough? 
  • Taiwan is diligently improving its resilience and defense. Although these efforts are premature, the government has an institutional framework to address pressing challenges. 
  • The US criticized Taiwan for not spending enough on defense. Taiwan's president pledged to increase Taiwan's defense spending to above 3 percent of GDP from the current 2.45 percent. However, the Trump administration still considers it inadequate due to the dangers the island experiences. 
  • Taipei is correct that its defense budget has increased annually as a share of government expenditures. However, since Taiwan's government budget is small, the increase is minuscule compared to China and other East Asian countries. 
  • Taiwan ranked fifth in trade surplus with the US, with a gap of $77 billion. To improve its national defense and resilience and reduce the trade surplus, Taiwan may purchase more defense or strategic goods from the US. However, due to TSMC's dominance in the semiconductor business and the surge in demand for advanced chips in the US, Taiwan is unlikely to narrow the trade deficit. 
  • TSMC has already started to produce advanced chips in the US and pledged to invest more, but the Taiwanese public disfavored the latter move. Furthermore, TSMC may escape Trump's tariffs or at least mitigate the impact, but other Taiwanese semiconductor firms may still face the tariffs. 
  • Taiwan also faces other challenges: 
  1. It does not have formal diplomatic relations with the US. Therefore, it impedes intergovernmental interaction with Washington. 
  2. As it leans closer to the US, it may face further retaliation from China. 
  3. Taiwan may become a bargaining chip for the US if the Trump administration decides to talk to China. 
  4. Trump's mistreatment of Zelensky and warming up to Putin is a cause of concern for the Taiwanese government. 
  • Given these predicaments, Taiwan must become more self-reliant and enhance its resilience and defense. Simultaneously, the government must seek ways to deal with domestic political challenges that impede Taiwan's national defense. 
 
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