作者/Author(s): Grant Rumley 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 03/21/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、川普、中國、武器 

摘要：

俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭改變了全球軍火銷售的格局，中國逐步填補了俄羅斯軍火出口減少所留下的空缺。美國應認清中國軍火銷售的現狀，並運用多種手段來阻止中國成為全球重要武器出口國。 

  • 雖然中國在全球軍火市場的市佔率仍有限，但斯德哥爾摩國際和平研究所（SIPRI）資料指出，中國已成為全球五大軍火出口國之一。 
  • 當一個國家成功開發和部署更新的武器，它會出售過剩或較舊的平台，以增加收入和進一步推動現代化。中國近年來熱衷於外銷武器和防禦系統，與他們的軍事現代化計畫不謀而合。  
  • 中國的對外軍售策略非常靈活，低價出售各類武器，為各國政府提供更靈活的採購選擇。中國更利用美國和歐洲武器製造商留下的空缺，銷售一些各國無法從西方供應商處採購的平台。 
  • 如果美國希望遏制中國崛起成為軍火出口大國，可以針對中國或其潛在客戶。 
  • 美國政府可以利用制裁和其他經濟手段，持續打擊中國的國防工業基礎。
  • 對於有意購買中國武器的國家，美國可以採取胡蘿蔔與大棒並用的方式。 
  1. 美國政府可以重新檢視並調整武器轉讓限制，擴大市場份額以壓制中國。 
  2. 如果美國不能滿足潛在買家的需求，也可以鼓勵盟友加入競爭。 
  3. 美國可以擴大限制敵對國家的軍火出口，如同過去對伊朗、北韓與俄羅斯所採取的措施。 
  • 美國應設立跨部門工作小組，以掌握並預測中國軍火銷售的發展趨勢及潛在買家，進而制定對應的應對策略以阻止相關交易。
  • 雖然中國武器成本較低、交貨時間快、使用限制較寬鬆所以極具吸引力，但買家可能會因缺乏配套的訓練教材或後勤維護支援而感到失望。 
Summary: 
The Russian invasion of Ukraine changed the global arms sales landscape, with China taking over the vacuum left by Russia's decrease in arms exports. The US should realize the new realities of China's arms sales and employ bilateral and multilateral instruments to hinder China's progress as a weapons exporter. 
  • Although China's share in the global arms market remains marginal, it has become one of the top five global arms exporters, according to SIPRI. 
  • As a country develops and deploys newer weapons, it will sell excess or older platforms to grow revenue and further modernize. China has enthusiastically promoted its weapons and defense systems in recent years, which aligns with its military modernization.  
  • China is ingenious in its arms sales, offering governments flexible purchasing options at a lower price. China also exploited gaps left by the US and European arms manufacturers, selling platforms that some governments could not procure from their Western suppliers. 
  • If the US wishes to hinder China's growth as an arms exporter, it could go after China or its potential customers. 
  • The US administration can continue efforts to impede China's defense-industrial bases using sanctions and other economic instruments. 
  • The US can use a mix of carrots and sticks on potential Chinese weapons customers.  
  1. The US administration could override and revise arms transfer limitations to expand its market share and outcompete China. 
  2. If the US cannot meet the demand of potential buyers, it can encourage its partners to compete against China as possible suppliers. 
  3. The US can expand its authority to limit adversaries' arms exports, as it did against Iran, North Korea, and Russia. 
  • The US should establish an interagency work group to understand and predict the trajectory of China's arms sales and its potential customers, then formulate countermeasures to hinder potential purchases. 
  • Although Chinese weapons are more attractive due to lower costs, faster delivery times, and looser use restrictions, buyers may be disappointed by the lack of accompanying training materials or back-end maintenance support. 
 
 
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