作者/Author(s): Jennifer Kavanagh and Stephen Wertheim 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Affairs 

日期/Date: 02/25/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 美台關係、軍事、台灣 

 

自主防衛 

  • 美國應制定一個更全面的戰略，透過維持對台戰略模糊，鼓勵區域夥伴提升自我防衛能力，防止中國繼續擴張影響力。 
  1. 此舉可以降低未來中國成功併吞台灣後，對華盛頓造成的損害。 
  2. 美國公開支持台灣防衛的態度與決心越強，越可能激怒北京，將美中推向戰爭邊緣。若美國的公開立場採到北京的底線，導致美中衝突爆發，美國的亞洲盟友恐會不願協助美國與台灣。 
  • 亞洲的權力平衡不是只靠台灣。為確保美國在印太地區的海上通道，白宮必須加強與日本、印度、南韓及東協國家的關係，持續提升區域夥伴的防衛能力。 
  • 與其大力擴展在中國周邊的軍事部署，美國應先加強現有軍事基礎設施，儲備軍需物資，以便協助盟友發展不對稱防禦能力。 
  • 美國應減少在台灣周邊的軍事存在，維持「一個中國」政策，對台海保持戰略模糊，並強調和平解決兩岸問題，以減輕中國對威脅的認知，同時專注於更廣泛的區域戰略。此外，美國也應確保中國對此善意行動作出相對的回應。雖然這可能會在短期內削弱美國對中國的嚇阻力，但美國可以維持長期戰略模糊，減緩相對的影響。 
  • 若美國將台灣武裝得太緊，中國可能認為「和平統一」的機會已喪失，進而採取激進行動以奪取台灣。雖然目前情勢尚未發展到那樣，但美國仍應設法緩解中國的憂慮，避免公開挑戰北京的領土主張與戰略野心。 
結論 
  • 美國必須重新評估台灣防衛的重要性，並調整其區域與全球戰略，以維護自身在印太地區的利益。 
  • 華盛頓也應深入與決策者及民眾的溝通，讓大眾了解美國在西太平洋的戰略利益，以及與中國開戰的實際成本。 
  • 如果中國減少對外戰狼行為，美國也應做好準備，與中國和平共存並進行長期的良性競爭。 
  • 然而，美國絕不可低估中國的威脅。此外，美國應對自身維持西太平洋穩定的能力保持信心，並避免過度強調台灣的重要性。 

Defense Self-Reliant 
  • The US should devise a comprehensive strategy to prevent the expansion of Chinese influence by maintaining strategic ambiguity on Taiwan and encouraging regional partners to ramp up their self-defense capabilities. 
  1. It will reduce the damages to Washington if China succeeds in annexing Taiwan. 
  2. The US's increased vocal support and resolve for Taiwan's defense will only provoke Beijing more, drawing the US closer to a war with China. The US Asian allies may be reluctant to aid the US and Taiwan if the US's public stance infuriated Beijing and drew the US into a war with China. 
  • The balance of power in Asia does not depend solely on Taiwan. To maintain its access to sea lanes in the region, the US must improve its ties with major actors such as Japan, India, South Korea, and ASEAN countries and boost partners' defenses. 
  • Instead of expanding its military access near China, the US should first reinforce its existing infrastructure and stockpile ammunition to assist its partners' asymmetric defense. 
  • The US should reduce its military presence in and around Taiwan, uphold the "One China" policy, remain ambiguous about defending Taiwan, and emphasize the peaceful resolution of the cross-strait issue to alleviate China's threat perception and focus on a larger regional strategy. At the same time, the US should also ensure China reciprocates the US's goodwill. Although it may signal weakened deterrence, the US could mitigate it by maintaining the long-standing strategic ambiguity. 
  • If the US arm Taiwan too well, China may see its opportunity to reunify the island will be lost and take drastic actions to retake the island. Given the current trajectory, this situation is unlikely, but the US must alleviate China's fears and avoid publicly challenging Beijing's territorial claims and ambitions. 
Conclusions 
  • The US must reassess the importance of Taiwan's defense and recalibrate its larger strategy to protect its interest in the Indo-Pacific region.  
  • Washington should also communicate with its policymakers and the public regarding its interests in the Western Pacific and the actual costs of a war with China. 
  • If China tones down its combative behavior, the US must also be ready to coexist with China and healthily compete with China. 
  • Nevertheless, the US must not underestimate China's threat. Furthermore, the US must be confident about its ability to maintain stability in the Western Pacific and not overrate Taiwan's importance. 
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