作者/Author(s): Luis Simon and Toshi Yoshihara 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 01/08/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、歐洲、台灣 

 

摘要：
可能的發展路徑
  • 中國試圖透過脅迫手段在不發動戰爭的情況下奪取台灣，但此舉可能失敗，促使北京升級衝突，引發第三方介入，或將衝突擴展成更大規模的區域戰爭。中國也可能攻擊美國本土的軍事基地或關鍵基礎設施來發動戰爭，以取得戰場優勢。 
  • 中國的入侵計畫包括對台灣進行轟炸、封鎖和兩棲攻擊。然而，中國試圖在戰場上取得主導地位，以阻止或削弱第三方的介入能力。 
  • 中國可能在南海和印度洋部署前線行動，以阻止或拖延美國及其盟友援助台灣。
對歐洲的影響 
  • 由於歐洲的資源有限，以及中國的反介入/區域拒止（A2/AD）能力，歐洲無法在西太平洋部署先進作戰系統。 
  • 歐洲可以在印度洋部署規模有限的航母打擊群，執行護航任務或反潛作戰，因為該地區位於中國A2/AD體系的範圍之外。 
  • 歐洲可以部署適合台海衝突的基礎戰力，例如特種部隊和配備飛彈的快速攻擊艦，同時監測戰場情勢並避開中國的監視。 
  • 核動力潛艦是歐洲能提供的最佳戰力資產。 
  1. 雖然潛艦的部署需要時間，且歐洲仍面臨來自俄羅斯在北大西洋的威脅，但潛艇可以在長期的台灣衝突中扮演重要角色。 
  2. 現有的合作計畫與基礎設施能加速歐洲潛艦的部署。 
  3. 與水面艦艇和空中作戰平台相比，潛艦擁有較高的生存能力與隱蔽性，能夠深入中國軍事行動範圍內執行任務。此外，中國的反潛作戰能力比較弱。 
  4. 歐洲的潛艦部署將有助於緩解美國潛艦艦隊規模不足的問題，並將戰爭控制在第一島鏈內。 
  5. 其他角色： 
封鎖與反封鎖行動。 
打擊中國關鍵基礎設施。 
斷絕中國的通訊線路。 
支援盟友的水面作戰艦隊。 
  • 總而言之，歐洲的角色旨在減輕印太地區盟友的負擔。 
 
Summary: 
Possible Pathways 
  • China's coercion to retake Taiwan without war may fail and push Beijing to escalate further, backfire and prompt third-party intervention, or expand into a wider regional war. China may also start the war by attacking the U.S. military bases or critical infrastructure in the U.S. homeland to gain a battlefield advantage. 
  • China's invasion plan involves bombardment operations, blockades, and amphibious attacks against Taiwan. However, China will try to dominate the battlefield and deny or reduce the ability of third-party intervention. 
  • China will likely deploy forward operations in the South China Sea and Indian Ocean to stop or delay the U.S. and its allies from assisting Taiwan. 
Implications for Europe 
  • Given Europe's scarce resources and China's A2/AD capabilities, Europe cannot deploy high-end combat systems in the Western Pacific.  
  • Europe could deploy a limited carrier strike group in the Indian Ocean and conduct escort missions or anti-submarine warfare because the region was well outside China's A2/AD network. 
  • Europe could deploy lower-end capabilities suitable for a Taiwan conflict, such as special forces and missile-armed fast attack ships, to evade Chinese surveillance while monitoring the situation. 
  • Nuclear-powered submarines are the best asset that Europe could offer. 
  1. Although they take time to deploy and face a Russian threat in the North Atlantic, submarines could play a significant role in a protracted Taiwan conflict. 
  2. Existing initiatives and infrastructure allow faster submarine deployment from Europe. 
  3. Submarines' high survivability and stealth ability, compared to surface vessels and aircraft, allow them to operate inside the Chinese military engagement zone. Furthermore, China's anti-submarine warfare capabilities are still weak. 
  4. Europe's submarines will mitigate some of the U.S.'s undersized submarine fleet and contain the war within the first Island Chain. 
  5. Other roles: 
Blockade and counter-blockade operations. 
Striking Chinese critical infrastructure. 
Sever China's lines of communication. 
Support allied surface combat vessels. 
  • In short, Europe's role is to reduce the burden of its allies in the Indo-Pacific.
 
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