作者/Author(s): Jacob Stokes 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/05/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、中國、北韓 


摘要：
北韓已向俄羅斯派遣超過一萬名士兵協助作戰，還有可能進一步增援。許多觀察人士認為，北韓的介入會引發北京在安全與聲譽方面的擔憂。事實上，中國不會反對或阻止北韓對俄羅斯的援助，原因如下： 
  • 北京的目標是防止俄羅斯在戰略上徹底失敗，並支持莫斯科捍衛自身影響範圍內國家政治與安全關係的權利，即使動用軍事手段也在所不惜。 
  • 中國向俄羅斯提供了大量的經濟和技術援助，同時不斷測試西方反制的底線。 
  • 北韓參與戰爭代表中國有望可避免西方制裁與封鎖帶來的外交、金融和軍事代價，同時保持戰略目標。 
  • 此外，北韓的參與延長了俄烏戰線，讓美國需耗費更多心力處理歐洲問題，對印太地區的戰略關注便有所下降。 
  • 北韓軍隊幫助俄羅斯奪回部分被佔領區，使俄軍能持續挺進烏克蘭。中國必然樂見俄羅斯成功吞併大部分烏克蘭領土，因為這會向台灣發出明確信號——只要堅持足夠長的時間，即使面對外部干預，大國仍可奪取領土。讓台灣了解，兩岸統一不可避免，抵抗毫無意義。 
  • 許多觀察家，包括部分中國學者，認為北韓的戰爭參與會讓北京政府感到不安。然而，北京強調，北韓的行動與中國無關。這種戰略否認也是一種誘導西方官員施壓中國干預的戰術，讓北京握有一定的外交籌碼和對等談判的機會。
  • 中國可能低估了自身立場所帶來的國際聲譽損失，這可能促使歐洲加強對亞洲安全架構的關注。然而，習近平已接受與美國及其民主盟友的對抗態勢。 
  • 儘管中俄關係緊密，中國仍對俄羅斯與北韓存有疑慮。若俄朝合作威脅到中國的國家安全，中國可能會轉變立場。 
  • 與其說服中國介入，西方應該找出並利用俄羅斯與北韓的摩擦點。
Summary: 
North Korea had sent more than ten thousand troops to assist Russia in Ukraine and may send more. Many observers expect North Korea's involvement will cause Beijing to worry due to reputation and security concerns. The truth is China will not oppose or stop North Korea's assistance for several reasons. 
  • Bejing aims to prevent Russia's complete strategic defeat and support Moscow's principle of defending the right to dictate its neighbors' political and security relations, even if it involves using the military. 
  • China provided Russia with extensive economic and technical assistance while testing the limits before the West retaliated.  
  • North Korea's involvement in the war means China could avoid the diplomatic, financial, and military costs of Western punishment while maintaining its strategic aims. 
  • Furthermore, North Korea's involvement prolongs the war in Ukraine, thereby keeping the U.S. distracted in Europe and away from the Indo-Pacific. 
  • North Koreans helped Russia liberate some captured regions, allowing Russian troops to advance into Ukraine. China would be satisfied if Russia could annex a large swath of Ukrainian territory because it would signal to Taiwan that major powers can seize territory as long as they can hold up long enough, even with foreign intervention. It would also warn the Taiwanese that reunification is imminent and resistance is futile. 
  • Many observers, including a minority of Chinese scholars, assumed North Korea's participation in the war would dismay the Beijing central government. However, Beijing emphasized it had nothing to do with North Korea's actions. This tactic is also a way to coax Western officials to compel Beijing to intervene, thereby giving Beijing some diplomatic leverage and an opportunity to demand reciprocity. 
  • China may be underrating the reputational costs of its stance, which may motivate European interest in the Asian security architecture. However, Xi had already accepted that there was a bloc confrontation with the U.S. and its democratic allies. 
  • Yet, China may oppose Russia-North Korea cooperation if it threatens China's national security. Despite their apparent deep partnerships, China is still suspicious of Russia and North Korea. 
  • Instead of persuading China to intervene, the West should identify and exploit the friction points between Russia and North Korea. 
 
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