作者/Author(s): Theresa Sabonis-Helf 

網站來源/Source: War on the Rocks 

日期/Date: 02/03/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 能源、烏克蘭、俄羅斯 


國際原子能總署與戰爭  
  • 烏克蘭在失去對車諾比核電廠的控制後，請求國際原子能總署提供支援，協助監管核電廠的運作。 
  • 自此，國際原子能總署在監測烏克蘭電力供應和降低核災風險方面扮演關鍵角色。他們經常強調，所有核設施都迫切需要來自電網的安全場外供電。 
  • 烏克蘭、俄羅斯及其他成員國均支持國際原子能總署提出的7項安全與保障原則，國際原子能總署的介入無疑確保了歐洲的安全。 
  • 國際原子能總署 會告知歐洲國家，戰爭中可能發生的核危險。因此，俄羅斯可能會利用 國際原子能總署的角色來散播恐懼，對 國際原子能總署觀察員進行蓄意攻擊或打擊電力基礎設施。 
可接受的風險程度  
  • 烏克蘭自2011年加入歐洲能源共同體以來，相當依賴國際原子能總署 及歐洲的能源聯繫。作為加入該共同體的一部分條件，烏克蘭必須脫離俄羅斯電網，並公開所有與俄羅斯的能源貿易。 
  • 過程很複雜，也增加了俄烏間的緊張關系，烏克蘭還是在戰爭開始之初，強制執行必要的能源改革。 
  • 在戰爭開始時，烏克蘭是歐洲的能源淨出口國，在該地區的收入和地位不斷提升。俄羅斯意識到這一影響後，開始針對札波羅熱核電廠相關電力基礎設施發動攻擊，最終迫使核電廠關閉。 
  • 此舉導致烏克蘭從能源出口國變為能源進口國，只能不斷向歐洲電網請求增加進口配額與支援基礎設施。 
  • 烏克蘭預期在戰爭結束後，重回重要能源出口國的地位。因此他們必須維持聲譽，維持其發電的可靠性與安全性。 
  • 在全球邁向綠色能源轉型的過程中，核能變得至關重要。然而，由於2011年福島核災及戰爭的影響，專家們目前的首要任務是確保現有核設施的安全，而不是建設新的核電廠。 
  • 基於國際壓力及歐盟與烏克蘭結盟協定，烏克蘭必須遵守國際原子能總署 的要求，關閉不符合國際標準的核電廠或能源網。 
Summary: 
The IAEA and the War 
  • Ukraine required the IAEA's support after it lost control of the Chernobyl plant and asked the agency to assist in regulating nuclear plants. 
  • Since then, the IAEA has played an indispensable role in observing Ukraine's power supply and mitigating risks of nuclear disaster. The agency often cited the urgent need for a safe off-site power supply from the grid for all nuclear facilities. 
  • Ukraine, Russia, and other members endorsed IAEA's seven pillars of nuclear safety. The agency's intervention undeniably kept Europe safe. 
  • The IAEA will warn European countries about possible nuclear dangers in the war. Therefore, Russia may exploit the IAEA's role to spread fear by conducting deliberate attacks on IAEA observers or striking electricity infrastructure. 
The Acceptable Level of Risk 
  • Ukraine partially depends on the IAEA and European energy ties since it joined the European Energy Community in 2011. Ukraine must disengage from the Russian grid and disclose all energy trade with Russia as part of its effort to join the community. 
  • Although it was complicated and increased tension with Russia, Ukraine enforced the required energy reforms even as the war began. 
  • At the beginning of the war, Ukraine was a net energy exporter to Europe, increasing its revenue and status in the region. Russia understood the implications and started to attack the power infrastructure associated with the Zaporizhzhia power plant, forcing its closure. 
  • The closure also made Ukraine an energy importer and regularly requested more import volumes and infrastructure from the European grid system.  
  • Ukraine anticipates being a critical energy exporter after the war ends. Therefore, it must maintain a reputation to keep its power generation reliable and safe. 
  • Nuclear energy becomes crucial in the world's green transition. However, due to the 2011 Fukushima disaster and the war, experts are prioritizing keeping current nuclear facilities safe than building new ones. 
  • Consequently, Ukraine must oblige any IAEA requests to shut down its nuclear plants or connected energy grid if they did not meet international standards due to international pressure and the E.U.-Ukraine Association Agreement. 
回上層