作者/Author(s): Benjamin Herscovitch 

網站來源/Source: The Interpreter 

日期/Date: 01/29/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 一中政策、外交、台灣 


摘要：

北京政府堅信國際社會支持其版本的「一中原則」及對台主權主張。澳洲洛伊國際政策研究所近期發布了「聯合國成員國對一中問題的立場」研究，指出雖然中國政府誇大了國際對其立場的支持程度，全球對北京的支持確實有所增加。 

  •  約 74% 的聯合國會員國承認台灣是中國的一部分。
  1. ​​​​​​​62%同意並肯定北京的一個中國原則。
  2. 另有 12% 雖不採用「一中原則」措辭，但仍支持北京對台灣的主權主張。 
  • ​​​​​​​進一步分析，約46% 的國家支持中國推動國家統一，而 21% 的國家則支持維持現狀。兩極分化可能會持續下去。 
  1. 北京陣營的支持者顯著增加，特別是非洲國家數量暴增，而支持維持現狀的國家數量則沒什麼變化。 
  2. 然而，幫中國在兩岸問題上背書，幾乎成為北京和其外交盟友聯合聲明的固定內容。
  • ​​​​​​​此舉雖然短期影響薄弱，但對台灣及支持維持現狀的國家來說是一個警訊，因為支持中國「國家統一」的聯合國會員國，某種程度上等同於支持中國對台動武。 
  • 雖然軍事平衡至關重要，但這種外交變化同樣關鍵，因為它可能削弱美國的集體嚇阻力，並進一步賦予中國更多利用「國際合法性」對台施壓的空間。 
Summary: 
The Beijing government is confident that the world supports its version of the one-China principle and its claim over Taiwan. The Lowy Institute published a UN member state's position on the one-China problem. Although the Chinese government exaggerated the international support for its stance, its view has garnered more backing globally. 
  • Around 74% of UN member states acknowledge that Taiwan is part of China. 
  1. 62% agree with and affirm Beijing's one-China principle.  
  2. Another 12% support Beijing's claim on Taiwan, although they do not use the "one-China principle." 
  • On closer inspection, around 46% endorse China's attempt to attain national reunification, followed by 21% who prefer the status quo. The polarization will likely persist.  
  1. The pro-Beijing camp gained an increase, especially among African countries, while the pro-status quo remained static. 
  2. However, the latter has a combined GDP and military spending of more than half of the world. 
  3. Yet, endorsement of China's position on Taiwan became a feature of a joint communique between Beijing and its diplomatic allies. 
  • Although there are no immediate implications, this is a warning sign for Taiwan and other countries that support the status quo because UN members who endorsed Beijing's "national reunification" inadvertently advocated for a PRC takeover of Taiwan. 
  • While military balance matters, this evolving diplomacy also matters because it may constrain the US effort at collective deterrence and give China the legitimacy to coerce Taiwan. 
 
回上層