網站來源/Source: Peterson Institute for International Economics 

日期/Date: 09/26/ 2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟、去風險化、美中 


摘要：
戰爭中的國家通常會切斷貿易聯繫，並限制敵國透過中介國家獲取商品的途徑。雖然美國與中國並未交戰，但雙方的去風險化（de-risking）政策可能最終演變為全面的經濟脫鉤。
  • 美國實施「小院高牆」策略，以限制中國獲取美國的先進技術。然而，美國持續擴大這些限制，且未有停止的跡象。
  • 部分西方國家指責中國透過技術出口進行間諜活動、監控，甚至破壞行動。因此，美國進一步限制華為（Huawei）、中興通訊（ZTE）與抖音國際版（TikTok）等中國科技產品的進口與使用。但美國至今尚未握有明確證據證明其構成安全風險。 
  • 此外，美國懷疑中國製造的港口起重機可能與中國情報機構相連，能夠進行遠端監控或控制。因此，美國考慮禁止未來購買中國起重機，甚至關閉現有的中國設備，以維護國家安全。 
  • 為了保護美國汽車產業和國家安全，美國也對自駕車或車輛零件中使用中國和俄羅斯軟硬體實施新的限制。美國甚至禁止直接從中國或中介國家進口中國製電動車。 
  • 美國的進口管制是全面性的，旨在防範中國科技產品可能帶來的監控風險或安全威脅。雖然這些政策名義上屬於去風險化（de-risking），但若持續擴大，最終可能導致美中經濟完全脫鉤。 
Summary: 
It is usual for countries at war to sever trade ties and restrict trade access through intermediaries. The U.S. and China are not at war, but their de-risking approach may expand to a complete economic decoupling. 
  • The U.S. implemented a "small yard, high fence" approach to restrict China's access to the U.S. advanced technologies. However, the U.S. keeps expanding the restrictions with no hints of ceasing. 
  • Some Western countries accuse China of conducting espionage, surveillance, and sabotage operations through its technology exports. Therefore, The U.S. went further by restricting the import or use of Chinese technological products, such as Huawei, ZTE, and TikTok, although there is no clear evidence of security risks. 
  • The U.S. also suspects that Chinese-manufactured port cranes are connected to computers that Chinese intelligence could control or monitor. As a result, the U.S. is considering banning future crane purchases and ceasing operations for national security reasons. 
  • The U.S. also imposes new restrictions on using Chinese and Russian hardware and software in autonomous vehicles or vehicle components to protect the U.S. automotive industry and national security. The U.S. even banned imports of Chinese electric vehicles directly from China or intermediary countries. 
  • The U.S. import controls are comprehensive, aiming to prevent the possibility of surveillance or harm from using Chinese products. Although this appears to be a de-risking initiative, it may eventually become decoupling. 
 
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