作者/Author(s): Rajan Menon 

網站來源/Source: Foreign Policy 

日期/Date: 01/13/2025 

關鍵字/Keywords: 軍事、戰略、普丁 


摘要：
普丁入侵烏克蘭之初有兩個目標，一是盡可能吞併烏克蘭領土，包括首都基輔，二是改變歐洲的權力平衡，同時將烏克蘭納入俄羅斯勢力範圍。雖然普丁的軍隊在2024年取得了一些重大戰果，但他們仍未達成這兩大目標。
  •  普丁堅信他們必須征服烏克蘭，阻止其向歐洲靠攏，這一觀點甚至是俄羅斯民族主義的普遍看法。許多俄羅斯人認為烏克蘭從俄羅斯分離是一件很詭異的事情，畢竟兩國共享相似的文化已逾千年。一些俄羅斯人甚至拒絕承認烏克蘭早已獨立的事實。 
  •  據現況，俄羅斯在與烏克蘭進行和平談判時，可能會要求保留已佔領的烏克蘭領土。然而，俄羅斯無法說服或強迫烏克蘭人在文化或政治上與俄羅斯統一，許多年輕一代的烏克蘭人也已脫離俄語和莫斯科正教會的影響。 
  • 雖然俄羅斯可能會在和平談判期間阻止烏克蘭加入北約，但即使沒有正式的聯盟，歐洲國家也會繼續擴大與烏克蘭的安全關係。
  • 許多人認為普丁發動戰爭是為了阻止烏克蘭加入北約。然而，自2008年北約首度提出接納烏克蘭的構想後，如今的烏克蘭最靠近成為北約成員的機會。此外，在俄烏衝突爆發不久後，芬蘭和瑞典也迅速加入北約，北約進一步擴張。 
  • 儘管歐盟成員缺乏迅速實現軍事自給自足的意願與團結力，但這次入侵與川普的回歸，已經逐步促使歐洲國家增加國防支出並重振國防工業，加強歐洲安全。 
  • 戰爭不僅造成俄羅斯軍隊的重大傷亡，也造成嚴重的經濟損失，這將是未來俄羅斯的長遠困境。  
  • 自戰爭爆發以來，俄羅斯對中國的經濟依賴顯著增加。然而，鑒於俄羅斯戰後將陷入困境，北京可能在中俄關係中掌握更大的主導權。 
  • 總體而言，俄羅斯不僅未能透過戰爭實現戰略目標，反而暴露了軍事上的弱點，削弱自身的地緣政治影響力。 
Summary: 
When Putin began his conquest of Ukraine, he had two aims: annex as much Ukrainian territory as possible, including its capital, Kyiv, and transform the European balance of power while absorbing Ukraine into Russia's sphere of influence. Although Putin's army gained significant victories in 2024, he is not even close to reaching his objectives. 
  • Putin's conviction in subduing Ukraine and preventing it from aligning closer to Europe comes from popular Russian nationalist sentiments that Ukraine's partition from Russia was unusual, mainly since they shared the same culture for more than a millennium. Some Russians even rejected the fact of an independent Ukraine. 
  • Based on the current situation, Russia may hold onto some Ukrainian territories during peace negotiations with Ukraine. However, it could not convince or coerce Ukrainians to culturally or politically unify with Russia; significantly younger Ukrainians detached themselves from the Russian language and the Moscow Patriarchate. 
  • Although Russia may impede Ukraine's ascension into NATO during peace negotiations, European countries will continue to expand their security ties to Ukraine even without a formal alliance. 
  • There is a widespread belief that Putin invaded Ukraine to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO. However, Ukraine is closer to joining NATO now since the idea emanated in 2008. NATO expanded after Finland and Sweden joined the alliance shortly after the invasion. 
  • The invasion and Donald Trump's return also prompted European countries to ramp up their defense spending and reinvigorate their defense industries to enhance European security despite EU members' lack of will and unity for rapid military self-sufficiency. 
  • The war not only inflicted heavy casualties on the Russian military, it also inflicted severe economic costs which will haunt Russia for a long time.  
  • Since the war began, Russia has increased its economic reliance on China. However, given its predicaments, Beijing may have a more considerable say over Russia-China relations after the war ends. 
  • Taken together, Russia not only failed to achieve its strategic aims through the war, but it also exposed its military's incompetency and lost its geopolitical weight. 
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