作者/Author(s): Peter A. Dutton and Bonnie S. Glaser 

網站來源/Source: The hill 

日期/Date: 11/22/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 法律、國際政治、中國、台灣


摘要：
川普政府即將上任，應優先阻止中國吞併台灣。中國曾使用非戰爭的手段來宣示其對台灣的主權，並威脅台灣人不要尋求獨立。
  • 中國可能正為「常態化對台灣使用武力」建立法律基礎。負責海上執法的中國海警（CCG）持續在台灣周邊進行演習。 
  • 西方偶爾批評中國在台灣周圍的軍事演習，但卻沒有譴責中國海警的行動。然而，中國海警的行動在宣示北京對台灣主權方面的影響力極高，而且可能是為未來使用武力鋪路。 
  • 北京將聲稱其行動符合「一個中國原則」：台灣是中國的一部分，中華人民共和國是中國唯一合法的政府。 
  • 美國及其他國家拒絕承認中共版本的「一個中國原則」。 
  1. 他們的外交措辭更加模糊—台灣的主權應由台灣與中國和平協商解決，不能訴諸戰爭。 
  2. 美國亦致力於防止台灣被軍事佔領，根據《台灣關係法》向台灣提供防禦性武器，並承諾在中國入侵時對中國進行經濟或外交上的報復。 
  • 中國海警的行動也挑戰了美國對「一個中國政策」的解讀，並試探西方捍衛台灣的決心。 
  1. 如果西方未能譴責中國海警的行動，實際上等於默認台灣屬於中國管轄，並接受未來對台灣使用武力屬於內政問題。 
  2. 然而，若西方批評中國海警的行動，則可能被視為挑戰中國的權利，激起中國的強烈報復。
  • 美國應該專注於降低台灣海峽升級的風險，譴責中國最近破壞地區和平的行動，但這可能對美中關係造成衝擊。 
  • 美國也應該挑戰中國對聯合國大會第2758號決議的詮釋，因為沒有證據顯示該決議符合中國對 「一個中國政策 」的詮釋。
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Summary: 
The incoming Trump administration should prioritize deterring a Chinese annexation of Taiwan. China had used measures short of war to demonstrate its claim on the island and intimidate the Taiwanese from seeking independence. 
  • China may be laying the legal basis to normalize its use of force against Taiwan. The Chinese Coast Guard (CCG), responsible for maritime law enforcement, conducted exercises around Taiwan.  
  • The West occasionally criticized Chinese military drills around Taiwan but fell short of condemning any actions from the Chinese Coast Guard. However, the CCG's actions were far more consequential in signaling Beijing's sovereignty claim over the Taiwan island and could be a precursor for using force. 
  • Beijing will claim its actions are in accordance with its "One China Principle": Taiwan is part of China, and the People's Republic of China is the only legitimate government for China. 
  • The US and other countries refuse to endorse the PRC's version of the "One China Principle."  
  1. Their diplomatic language is more ambiguous: Taiwan's sovereignty should be peacefully determined by the Taiwanese and Chinese without resorting to war.  
  2. The US also seeks to prevent Taiwan from a military takeover, providing defensive weapons to Taiwan under the Taiwan Relations Act and promising economic or diplomatic retaliation against China if an invasion does happen. 
  • The CCG's actions also challenge the US interpretation of the "One China Policy" and test the West's resolve to defend Taiwan.  
  1. If the West fails to condemn CCG's actions, it inadvertently admits Taiwan falls under China's jurisdiction and accepts any future use of force is a domestic issue. 
  2. However, if the West criticized CCG's actions, it may mean challenging China's rights and provoking strong retaliation from China. 
  • The US should focus on reducing risks of escalation in the Taiwan Strait and condemn China's recent actions for destabilizing regional peace, although this may shake U.S.-China relations. 
  • The US should also challenge China's interpretation of the UNGA Resolution 2758 because there is no evidence that the resolution conforms to China's interpretation of the "One China Policy." 
 
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