作者/Author(s): Georgi Kantchev and Lingling Wei 

網站來源/Source: The Wall Street Journal 

日期/Date: 12/1/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 經濟制裁、中國、台海衝突 


摘要：
中國支持俄羅斯在烏克蘭的行動，對中國而言具有一定戰略利益。他們能藉此研究在台海緊張情勢下，繞過西方制裁的可能方法。  
  • 自俄烏發生衝突以來，中國官員定期拜訪俄羅斯負責反制裁的機構，以瞭解制裁的影響及繞過制裁的方法。
  • 中國希望從俄羅斯的經驗中，學習美國地緣經濟操作的效用與侷限性。北京政府預測，美國在川普第二任期內將加大運用這種手段。
  • 如果中國真的入侵台灣，美國很可能會對中國採取類似制裁俄羅斯的措施。因此，中國希望針對不同制裁情況做好準備。 
  • 中國尤其關注外匯儲備凍結的問題，試圖尋求外匯儲備多元化，減少對美元資產依賴的方法。 
  • 北京政府也很關注中國貿易和供應鏈的韌性。在面對西方貿易制裁時，中國不期望俄羅斯能像吸收自身出口那樣吸收中國的出口。
  • 西方若實施全面制裁，可能會破壞中國的金融體系。因此，中國正在研究俄羅斯如何反制裁，在作戰的同時穩定經濟。 
  • 中國也希望能深入了解聯盟的價值和限制
  1. 中國瞭解到，雖然西方國家存在利益衝突，但必要時可以走到一起。 
  2. 然而，西方顧慮到通貨膨脹問題，在制裁力道上存在分歧，導致最一開始的制裁失效。
  3. 中國還意識到深度融入全球供應鏈的危險，開始轉向經濟自給自足發展。 
  4. 中國也探索進出口貨物的方法，想辦法逃避西方的制裁。 
Summary: 
China's support for Russia's effort in Ukraine has strategic benefits: examine possible ways to bypass Western sanctions in a Taiwan contingency.  
  • Chinese officials have regularly visited Russian agencies involved in countering sanctions since the Russo-Ukraine War to understand the impacts of sanctions and methods of bypassing them. 
  • China aims to learn from Russia's experience the uses and limits of US geoeconomic operations, which the Beijing government predicts will intensify during Trump's second presidency. 
  • Furthermore, if China does invade Taiwan, the US will likely impose similar measures as on Russia. Therefore, China hopes to prepare against any sanction scenarios. 
  • China is particularly concerned about freezing its foreign exchange reserves and has sought ways to diversify its foreign reserves away from dollar-denominated assets. 
  • The Beijing government is also concerned about the resilience of China's trade and supply chain. China does not expect Russia to absorb its exports in the case of Western trade sanctions as it did for Russia. 
  • Comprehensive Western sanctions would undermine China's financial system. Therefore, China is examining Russia's initiatives in counter-sanction preparations to allow it to stabilize its economy while maintaining warfighting. 
  • China also aims to explore the values and limits of coalitions. 
  1. China understood that although Western countries have conflicting interests, they can come together when necessary. 
  2. However, the West disagrees on the extent of sanctions because of inflation concerns, rendering initial sanctions ineffective. 
  3. China also saw the dangers of deep integration with the global supply chains and embarked on a journey to economic self-sufficiency. 
  4. China also explores ways to export and import goods to evade Western sanctions. 
 
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