作者/Author(s): Chris Miller 

網站來源/Source: American Enterprise Institute 

日期/Date: 12/23/2024 

關鍵字/Keywords: 科技、中國、AI、晶片
 

摘要：
由於美國的技術出口管制，中國無法出口任何用於人工智慧（AI）的硬體。 
  • 華為是中國領先的AI晶片製造商，卻因缺乏先進晶片片製造工具，只能生產少量且低品質的AI晶片。 
  1. 中國計劃擴大國內人工智慧能力，但受限於國內晶片製造能力，只得從西方國家進口降規版晶片。
  2. 中國 AI 晶片品質遠遠落後於美國。大約需要 5 顆華為最好的 AI 晶片才能媲美輝達最先進的晶片。 
  3. 基於上述原因，中國的計算能力落後於美國，導致中國在短期內無法出口AI數據中心技術。 
  • 美國自 2018 年起對中國實施極紫外線（EUV）曝光機出口管制，是造成中國目前人工智慧能力受限的主要原因。此外，這也鞏固了美國在AI技術領域的領導地位。 
  • 雖然中國在許多技術硬體的生產方面處於領先地位，但在AI技術，尤其是AI晶片方面，仍是淨進口國。 
  • 中國一直無法採購到最先進的 AI 晶片和晶片製造設備，在AI 晶片製造方面很可能根本看不到西方競爭對手的車尾燈。 
  • 如果中國無法滿足其 AI 晶片需求，也無法獲得先進晶片製造設備，在短期內就無法出口頂級 AI 晶片。因此，只有西方企業才能在全球推出人工智慧基礎設施和數據中心。 

Summary: 
Due to US technological export controls, China could not export any hardware used for artificial intelligence (AI). 
  • Huawei, China's leading AI chip producer, can only produce a limited number of low-quality AI chips due to a lack of advanced chipmaking tools. 
  1. China plans to expand its domestic AI capabilities. However, due to limitations in its domestic chip manufacturing capacities, China needs to import downgraded chips from Western countries.
  2. The quality of Chinese AI chips is magnitudes behind that of US ones. It takes around 5 of Huawei's best AI chips to match Nvidia's most advanced chips. 
  3. Due to the factors above, China's computing power lags behind the US. Therefore, China will not soon export AI data center technology. 
  • The US's export control of extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools to China since 2018 has been the primary cause of China's current limitation of AI capabilities. Furthermore, it also maintains the US's leadership in AI technology. 
  • Although China leads the production of many technological hardware, it is a net importer of AI technology, especially AI chips. 
  • China will likely lag in AI chip manufacturing while its Western competitors forge ahead because it cannot procure the most advanced AI chips and chipmaking equipment. 
  • If China cannot satisfy its AI chip demands and access advanced chipmaking equipment, it will not soon be able to export top-class AI chips. Therefore, only Western firms could roll out AI infrastructure and data centers globally. 
 
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